MCX Lead Analysis 05-02-2016 7:01 PM IST

7:01 PM IST
Hi Friends,
I would like to update my MCX Lead Analysis.

CMP: 123.40
Swing Hight/Resistance: 138.35
Swing Low/Support: 102.45

As per my chart, we are in moving complex correction on the upside.
I expect to see more upside which I have mentioned in the gray box in the chart.

But as per the chart, wave 3 of 5 is still in progress and we may see complex correction as wave 4.

Ultimate target area for this up move can be 124.6-127.8.

I expect to see reversal between the above area to break the low of 102.45 and my ultimate target on the downside is 89 Long Term Positional.

Thanks,
Traders//Visitors, please go thru' disclaimer before taking any trading decision.

Arockia.

Crude View 04-Feb-2016 7:21 AM IST

Crude 32.66 7:21 AM IST
As long as crude supported by 27.54, I expect to see minimum 36.59% which 100% of wave w as per the chart. But as per my understanding wave 4 can make 23.6%/38.2 as retracement and reverse.

Still this looks like a a w-x-y pattern and I  expect to see 100% of wave w to complete wave 4 and the final down move to the ultimate target 21$/19.89.
Please comment on my chart and let me know if I am anything wrong, because, I am newbie in analysis.

 
Now from the smaller tf, if crude resisted by 32.84, we may see a tracement towards 32.1-31.7 and from there revere upside with the support of 31.33$.

Crude Update 30-Jan-2015

Chart for Trade Ideas:
CMP: 33.60

Support:27.54$
Resistance:50.91

If crude supported by 27.54, we will see more completed correction which is one of the wave 4 characteristic as per my knowledge. Also, we have done minium upside retracement of (28.56) at 33.05. Next and normal retracement level of w4 would be 36.46.

Note:As per my analysis, this final down move (W5) is going end as an Ending Diagonal.

Daily Calls Updates from 27-Jan-2015

Daily Paid Calls Update from Jan 2016

UPDATE Trading Ideas, Historical Seasonal Analysis of Crude given long time back (15-May-2015, 1-Aug-2015)

26-Jan-2015 12:51 PM IST

Original Posts:

15-May-2015

http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2015/05/nymex-crude-chart-for-ideas-15-may-2015.html

LONG TERM VIEW
Based on Historical Chart, I expect to see 45.2, 37.9, 33.2, 30.2, 22.5 positionally if 62.57 is the end of WAVE 4 of c of B.

CMP was 59.80

1-Aug-2015

http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2015/08/wti-crude-positional-analysis-01-aug.html

CMP was 45.28

Historical Ups and Downs with Seasonality.

What is expected now?


I am telling from long time back, I expect to se 21/19.89%.  But, Crude has done minimum retracement of 50% (30.08). Next 22.46.

Previous Comments/Posts:

[1/25 4:47 AM][25-Jan-2016] Arockia: Support 27.4$, Resistance 38.4$
We may see xyz pattern or bigger ▶ pattern as wave 4. Mostly it won't break 38.4$.

Actual/Bigger Resistance is only at 50.91$

25-Jan-2016

http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2016/01/nymexwti-crude-view-15-jan-2016.html

21-Jan-2016

http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2016/01/crude-analysis-21-jan-2015.html





My ultimate targets: 28.70, 27.58, 25.66, 20.69, 19.41, 18$


NOTE: THIS IS BASED ON MY OWN ANALYSIS, AND EACH ONE'S WAVE COUNT/VIEWS MAY DIFFER. THIS IS FOR STUDY PURPOSE ONLY. IF ANYONE TRADING BASED ON THIS, TRADE AT YOUR RISK. ALWAYS, READ DISCLAIMER BEFORE TAKING ANY TRADING DECISION.

NYMEX/WTI Crude view 25-Jan-2016

IST
Cmp 37.38


[1/25, 4:36 AM] Arockia: Gm friends

Another trading week started.

As I am mentioning from long time I expect to see lower lows/bottom in crude by Feb 2016.

Still my view continues n expecting another last low from bigger time frame.

Shall we give a pass for this down move?

Means bigger correction before final fall/ ultimate goal is tgt?

Chart looks likes we may see complex xyz correction before next fall.

So traders please watch carefully and trade.

Analysts, plz go thru' n correct me if I am wrong.

Thanks.

Arockia.


[1/25, 4:47 AM] Arockia: Support 27.4$, Resistance 38.4$
We may see xyz pattern or bigger ▶ pattern as wave 4. Mostly it won't break 38.4$.

Actual/Bigger Resistance is only at 50.91$


[1/25, 4:55 AM] Arockia: As most of u know, my ultimate tgt is 20/19.89$  LONG TERM Positional.

Seasonally, crude may move upside from Feb/March till Jun/Aug .

So need to to wait.
Are we going to see bigger correction until Jun/Aug 2016.

Or we going to achieve our tgt n reverse to main up trend?

Time will tell. I lost my historical crude historical seasonality chart n searching for it.

Will post once I got it.

Thanks,
Arockia.

Crude Analysis - 21-JAN-2015

7:10 PM IST

Crude CMP 28.38
2+8+3+8+ = 12 = 3


Today's Date is 21-01-2016
Fib Numbers related with today's dates are
21, 1
2+1 = 3
2+1+21+1+1+6 = 13

Today is important daY FOR CRUDE.  MAny fib numberes are conflicting todays date.



Fib Series 1,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89....

Watch and trade.

RESISTANCE: 29.20
SUPPORT: 27.50
Near by FIBS 29.18, 27.55.


Numbers to be watched + or -5.

Have strict SL Trade, All the best.

AS USUAL I AM STILL BEARISH AND EXPECTING MORE LOWER LEVELS.

WILL GIVE MY DETAILED ANALYSIS AFTER 24/25 JANUARY, 2016.

NOTE; MANY OF MY TARGETS DONE.

Will be back from 24/25 Jan.



Thanks.


I am hospitalized from 2nd (road accident), and will expecting to be back on 24/25 January. Until then, Good Bye friends, Enjoy trading. If you have time, please go thru' my old posts for my views which were given already.


THANKS ALL.