Crude Update 20-Apr-2016 - Is the history repeating again?

CMP 41.75$
Res: 42.9
Supports: 37.6/35.23

Crude is trading at important level. Immediate big down moves / lower lows  are in doubt as of now, because, crude has broken important resistance 42.46$ and made high 42.85/42.88.

For any sell strict n max sl must be 42.9$. If break likely scenarios
1. We have started bull move. If this is the case, buy on dips will be the main strategy.
2. We have started bigger correction with resistance at 62.6$. If this is the case, correction may last for longer time.

Seasonal Crude Moves based on the historical charts:
Feb/Mar - Aug/Oct - BULL MOVE.

Reference Charts:
http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2016/01/update-trading-ideas-historical.html

MCX Base Metals - Swing Highs n Lows, Lifetime Highs n Lows., Important Levels

As per the data I have, the following are the Swing Highs n Lows, Lifetime Highs n Lows., Important Levels:

Alum 26.10.2005

86 (open) -> 84.25 -> 151.45 -> 92.55 -> 144.20 -> 62.20 -> 109.20 -> 85.90 -> 130.10 -> 91.80 -> 111.30 -> 98
Lifetime High: 151.45 (19-5-2006), Low: 62.20 (2-3-2009)
Important Levels: 62, 86, 92, 125, 130, 144, 151

Copper - 04.06.2004

129.95 (open) -> 117.60 -> 397.85 -> 138.55 -> 466.20 -> 332.35 -> 512.60 -> 291.50
Lifetime High: 512.60 (2-9-2013), Low: 117.60 (2-7-2004)
Important Levels: 118, 139, 332, 397, 411, 512.

Lead - 27.03.2006

52.95 (open) -> 41 -> 154.35 -> 40.50 -> 121.95 -> 72.55 -> 135.25 -> 90.85 -> 155.30 -> 102.45
Lifetime High: 155.30 (29-9-2013), Low: 40.50 (20-12-2008)
Important Levels: 66, 72, 91, 102, 122, 140, 155

Nickel - 03.06.2004

555 (open) -> 495 -> 2253.90 -> 442.30 -> 1327.8 -> 787.4 -> 1279.90 -> 517
Lifetime High: 2253.90 (17-4-2007), Low: 442.30 (23-12-2008)
Important Levels: 440, 500, 800, 995, 1280, 2250,

Zinc - 27.03.2006

118 (open) -> 118 -> 208.30 -> 49.85 -> 123.20 -> 74.35 -> 154.30 -> 96.65
Lifetime High: 208.30 (2-12-2006), Low: 49.85(22-12-2008)
Important Levels: 50, 98, 115, 123, 135, 155, 208

Zinc Analysis 09-Apr-2016

CMP: 117.20

Swing High: 124.45
Swing Low: 96.65
Res: 124.40/.45, 123.80
Supports: 115.60, 111.80

As long as Zinc resisted by 123.8/124.45, I expect to see 115.60 again.
Other targets: 115.1-114.7, 114-113.70, 112.15-111.80, 111.1-110.54, 109.25-109.15, 107.3-106.8, 104.8-104.5, 100.7-100.4

If Zinc supported by 115.60/116, I expect to see 118, 118.5-118.9, 119.3, 119.6-119.7, 120.1, 120.6-120.80, 121.3, 121.8, 122.5

Trade Idea:
1. Buy Zinc on dips with max sl 116, for 118, 119.3, 120.5.

2. Sell between 120-122, max sl 124.55, tgts: 115.6, 113.8, 112, 109.3, 107.3, 105.
2a. Sell below 115.6.

3. Buy between 107-100, SL 96.55, TGTs: 124.3, 133.
3a. Buy above 124.55

This analysis is for Study purpose only.
Read Disclaimer if you want to trade based on this.

Thanks.

Gold Analysis 08-Apr-2016

CMP: 1236.83
Res: 1244/1284
support: 1208

If Gold resisted by 1244/1284, we can see 1208 again and further, 1194, 1168-1165, 1140-1137, 1120-1100.

Above 1244, we can see 1255, 1261-1265. Break of 1285, bull.

Breakout levels: 1208/1285.

All the best. Thanks.

Read Disclaimer before taking any trade decision.

Crude Analysis 01-Apr-2016

View 08-Apr-2016 1:28 PM IST

CMP 38.33

Crude broken important res 38.27, Now I expect to see 39.70, 40.3-40.45, 40.70-40.90, 41.55.

If crude resisted by 42.46$ again fall will start and min target 35.23. Other targets, please check previous views.

View 08-Apr-2016 5:55 AM IST

CMP: 37.58

Supports: 36.67, 35.23

Resistances:  38.27, 42.46

As per the below chart,

Small breakout levels: 38.27/36.67.

Positional breakout levels: 42.46/35.23.

Above 38.27, we may see 39, 39.7, 40.34, 40.8, 41.55. Above 42.46, bull.

As long as 42.46 resists and any break below 35.23$, positionally bearish and we will see 26$ again. refer previous update for downside targets.

So, as of now, aggressive shorts not preferred.

Levels to watch: 39.7 - 40.8 if we reach there.

Chart 1

Chart 2 for some ideas

Thanks.

 

View 07-Apr-2016

Update 8:41 PM IST

 Any break of 35.23, I expect 32.15, 31.60, 28.38, 26.31, 22.42, 20.89, 19.89

 Update 6:03 PM IST

37.34, 37.13, 36.75-36.69, 36.58, 36.41-36.39, 36.18-36.12 (level to watch if we reach here), 35.97-25.95, 35.58, 35.23

CMP 37.82$
Now, If crude resisted by 38.3$, I expect to see 37.55$ again and further 37.11, 36.76, 36.39, 36.12, 36.00-35.95, 35.23. if crude breaks 35.2$ Crude will be very weak.
View valid as long as 38.3$ holds res.

Thanks.

Chart Analysis 07-Apr-2016

 

 

 View 06-Apr-2016

8:30 PM: SL NOT SAFE, MADE HIGH 37.53 till now. Still my view sell on rise only.

I expect this up move to be completed between 37-37.25$.

Below 36.44 bearish and expecting 36.24 first and my other targets 35.02-34.96, 34.25, 33.47, 32.48-32.36, 31.81....

Fresh sell can be initiated at cmp 36.87 or between 37-37.25 with SL 37.37/37.55(max) for the above targets.

Thanks.

 

Update 02-Apr-2016

36.26-36.02, 35.34, 35.02-34.96, 34.25, 33.47, 32.48-32.36, 31.81...

 

01-Apr-2016

CMP 37.71$
Resistances: 39.83/42.46$
Support: 35.94$


Crude is trading at important level between 37.85-37.48.

Now support seen around 37.56.
Small resistance is at 38.35/39.01$.


As long as Crude resisted by 39.83/42.46, I am bearish and expecting [36.76$] first.
Further targets: 36.18-35.94, [35.34-35.26], 34.25, [33.1], 32.44-32.30, [31.8], 30.86, 29.91, 27.88, [26.04].
Below 26$, I expect 21/19.89$.

Thanks,
Read Disclaimer before making any trade decision.

-------------------------------------------------

Previous Analysis and result:

http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2016/03/crude-analysis-19-mar-2016.html

As long as crude resisted by 42.46$, we can see 26$ first positionally and further 21/19.89$.
Targets: 38.57, 36.18, 34.24, 32.32, 30.85, 27.54, 26.04.

As long as long as crude resisted by 42.46$, I expect to see 40.92, 40.16-39.96, 39.21, 38.75-38.44.

Check the above post for Alternative scenario.

Crude Analysis 19-Mar-2016

CMP 41.23
Resistance: 42.46
Support: 35.94

Previous Analyses:

http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2016/02/crude-view-18-feb-2016.html
http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2016/03/crude.html
http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2016/03/crude-analysis-13-mar-2016.html

For previous Charts, please check at the BOTTOM of the Page.

19-Mar-2016

Primary Scenario:

Crude has done 61.8% retracement of wave 3 and more than 200% of wave w[a].

 

As long as crude resisted by 42.46$, we can see 26$ first positionally and further 21/19.89$.
Targets: 38.57, 36.18, 34.24, 32.32, 30.85, 27.54, 26.04.

Alternate Scenario:

If you notice the below charts, we have done the upside target level, which was predicted earlier.

Usually, wave 5 will be 100% of wave 1 or 61.8% of wave 1-3.  As you can see the below chart, we have not done any of these levels, which lies at 43.5/44$.

What may happen, if this up move continues?

Crude can come down to 40/39.2 level and if supported by 36$ again it can shoot up to 43.5/44$ level.

Retracement levels: 40.93/39.97/39.21/38.44/37.86 (level to watch if we reach here), 35.94(100%).

As long as long as crude resisted by 42.46$, I expect to see 40.92, 40.16-39.96, 39.21, 38.75-38.44.

And If crude supported by 35.94$, it can take out 42.46$ and can reach 43.5/44$.

Previous Analyses - Charts:

14-Feb-2016

02-Mar-2016

13-Mar-2016

Gold Analysis 14-Mar-2016

CMP: 1255.
Previous Analysis:
http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2016/03/gold-analysis-09-mar-2016.html



Support: 1237.
As long Gold supported by 1237, I expect to see 1284 again and further 1299, 1314, 1323, 1338 max.

For any by max sl 1235 for the above targets.

Crude Analysis 13-Mar-2016

 CMP 38.51

Previous Analysis
http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2016/03/crude.html



Supports: 37.19/36.12$
Resistance: 39$

Min target done at 38.7 as per my previous analysis.

As long as 37.15/36.1$ supports, I expect to see 39.8$ first and further 40.2-40.9$.

Reversal Zone 40-41$.
If Crude resisted by the above zone, again another fall min 26$.

Gold Analysis 09-Mar-2016

11-Mar-2016 7:18 AM IST

09-Mar-2016 8:08 AM IST

CMP 1254.26

Support: 1250
Resistances: 1279/1282

Previous Analysis:
http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2016/03/gold-analysis-03-mar-2016.html

As long Gold resisted by 1282, I expect to see more down fall in Gold.
Targets: 1251-1247, 1236, 1227, 1219, 1203, 1190, 1155.

Trade Idea: Sell Gold at cmp 1254 or on rise, Small SL 1266, Max SL 1283 for the above targets.

This analysis is for study purpose only.
Read Disclaimer always before taking any trading decision.
All the best.

Positoal Views of COMEX/NYMEX 21/22-Nov-2015

Gold 1077.14

Resistance: 1192$
Downside targets: 1065, 1031, 995, 969, 933, 903.
I expect Break of 1064 next fall.

Silver 14.14

Still my previous original view is in place.
http://freecommodityanalysis.blogspot.in/2014/10/comex-silver-view-26-oct-2014.html

Crude 41.57

Resistance: 50.92/61.27$
As long as crude resisted by 45.1/48.35/51$, I still expect to see my downside targets and expecting 40.1 first.
Further targets: 38.1, 36.90, 36.1.
Ultimate targets: 41.24, 31.1, 24.5, 22.1, 21$.

Copper 2.0323

Resistance: 2.4910$
Normal target done. Further targets: 1.9547, 1.8363, 1.6475.

http://freecommodityanalysis.blogspot.in/2014/10/comex-copper-view-13-oct-2014.html

Natural Gas 2.129

Resistances: 2.279/2.425/2.475
First target: 2.053/2.048, Further targets: 1.926, 1.888, 1.850.

Trade at your Risk. READ DISCLAIMER ALWAYS BEFORE TAKING ANY DECISION.
Thanks. All the best.