NYMEX Crude Positional Analysis 01-Feb-2015

AS OF NOW, THERE IS LOT OF CONFUSION WITH MY CRUDE POSITIONAL ANALYSIS. BUT STILL I AM BEARISH. As per my view we are in COMPLEX ABC correction and expecting one more fall towards 37$.

TRADING IN THIS CONFUSION IS NOT ADVISED. BETTER WE CAN WATCH. RISK TAKERS CAN GO WITH THE TRADE IDEA GIVEN AT THE END.


Based on my Analysis,
If crude resisted by 51.72/49.07, I expect to see more down move for targets: 43.86, 43.31, 42.11, 41.26, 40.28, 37.33, 34.09.

Based on my Hourly Chart,
Resistance 1: 51.72/49.07
Supports: 44.20/43.58
As per my view, we are in abc correction and I expect more up move and expecting 48.60, 49.07, 49.33, 49.97, 51.72(100%). If crude resisted by 51.72, any reversal from these levels, first target on the down side is 43.58.

Resistance 2: 57.54
Supports: 44.20/43.58
If We take 57.54 as the resistance and the wave end at 44.20. Then we are in complex ABC correction and the current up move is a Wave C. If so, upside retracement levels are: 49.33, 50.87, 52.44, 53.62, 54.67, 57.54 (100%). Any reversal from these levles, first target is 43.58.

TRADE IDEA:
Sell Crude at CMP (47.68) or on next high with Strict SL  49.15/41.85 for 46.5, 44.45, 43.58, 43.31, 42.11, 41.26, 40.28, 37.33, 34.09.





MCX Resistances: 3070/3130. AS long as these resists, Sell on Rise is my strategy. Will be reanalysing my charts, if there is any break of these resistances.

As per call Given on 29-Feb-2014
Sellers SL 49.15/51.85(max). Targets: 43.8, [[43.20]], 42.53, 41.81, 41.09, [[40.7]], [[37.90]], 37.40, [[35.40]].
Sellers SL 3070/3140(max). Targets: 2762, 2720/2703, 2686, 2614, 2548, 2503, 2450, 2337.


TRADE AT YOUR RISK. WE CAN WAIT FOR CLEAR TREND. WILL UPDATE MY VIEW, IF THERE IS ANY CHANGE IN MY VIEW.

SELLERS SL: 51.85/3140.
BUYERS SL: 43.4/ 2710.
AS OF NOW STOP LOSS IS VERY BIG ON BOTH SIDES.

Crude Positional Analysis 18-Dec-2014

Good Morning Friends.
Positionally, I am still bearish. Still I expect to see 50.7-50.54/48.00-47.73.

As of now, the resistance is at 77.80/78. As long as 77.80, resists, my strategy will be SELL ON RISE.

NOTE: This view is based on Monthly/Weekly/Daily charts.
Now small resistance is around 63.7/64.4.


As per my analysis, we are in wave 4 of Wave 5 and we have done minimum (normal) correction at 58.94. If this is the end of wave 4 of w5, then my ultimate target would be 46.00-45.34-45.00.

Wave 4 of Wave 5 other retracement levels: 57.35 (done), (made high 58.94) 59.68, 61.56, 63.43, 64.86, 66.11.

For this view to be valid, crude must break 53.60 first.

Trade Idea: Risk takers can enter SELL at cmp 56.90/59.3, with strict SL 57.3/59.
OR BETTER WE CAN WAIT FOR CLEAR VIEW OF THE TREND.


Any move above 69.7, my view will be invalid and I will considering the move as positional long term BIG UP move.

Let us wait and watch how the market unfolds.

NOTE: We are nearing the end of down move/may be we would have completed, so now shorting is highly risky.
This analysis is for learning purpose only. TRADE AT YOUR RISK. Thanks.

NYMEX Crude Positional View 09-Dec-2014

CMP: 62.75.
Nymex Crude Resistances: 77.80/69.53.
As long as the above levels resist, my strategy is SELL ON RISE with strict stop loss at 70.

Next targets: 61.00-[60.84]-60.44-60, 58.7-[58.43]-58.2, 55.70-[55.43-55.13]-55.00, 52.3-[52.12]-52.00, 50.3-[50.12-49.72]-49.5, 46.9-[46.72-46.42]-46.3.

I will be reanalysing my chart if crude moves above 69.53. As long as 69.53 resists, this view is VALID.


TRADE AT YOUR RISK.

NYMEX CRUDE View 01-Dec-2014

CMP 65.83
Resistance: 77.80

As per my view, we have started wave 5 at 77.80 from the bigger picture.
As usual, my strategy still SELL ON RISE.

I expect the following levels in Crude.
Retracement Levels: [64.48], 57.34, 50.89, 33.19 (100%).
As per wave 1: 57.20.
As per wave 0-3: 63.11, 58.44, 57.3, [53.88], 50.48, 47.32, 38.95.

My ideal targets: 64.7-[64.48]-64.3, 63.3-[63.11]-63.00, 58.7-[58.44]-58.2, 57.5-[57.34]-[57.2]-57.00, 54-[53.88]-53.6, 50.89, 50.48, 47.32, 38.95.


Crude is now at important retracement level 61.8% (around 64.5). If crude resisted by 77.80/78 I expect the following downside targets 63.3-63.11, 58.7-58.44, 57.6-57.34, 54.10-53.88, 50.9-50.48, 47.6-47.32.

NYMEX CRUDE POSITIONAL VIEW 25-OCT-2014

Based on Weekly Chart,
If 94.90 resists, minimum downside targets are: 78.35, 73.5.

If crude resisted by 82.36/84.79, I expect big down fall, targetting 79.80, 77.7, 74.9.

 

Positionally, I am still bearish and expecting 78.4, 73.5, 65/57.5/53.

I expect minimum 78.5, 74.


Other targets:
80.05, 79.80, 78.34, 77.7, 77.2, 77.5, 74.80, 73.8.



Resistances : 82.36/84.79/88.20/91.80/94.89.

VIEW VALID AS LONG AS 94.89 HOLDS RESISTANCE.


What will happen if 84.79 is not the end of correction?
Crude will take support at 79.80, and then make an upside move towards, 84.79, 85.80-86, 86.6, 87.21, 87.7-88.3.

But as per my view the minimum correction completed at 84.79.

 

For any Sell Strict SL 82.5/85. TGTs: 79.80, 78.5, 74. Small/Other targets check above.