CRUDE ANALYSIS 16-Jul-2016

CMP 45.98
Res: 46.9/49.98
Sup: 45/44.69/44.40

As long as 45$ supports, we can see 47.06$ first. Further 47.65-47.84-48, 48.35-48.60.

If crude resisted by 50$ and any reversal from the above levels (i.e., 47.65-47.84-48, 48.35-48.60), we can see 44.4$ again. And further, 43.4/42.55/41.1/40.34/38.89/37.82/36.95/35.29.


IMPORTANT LEVEL TO WATCH: 47.65-48.60.

ABOVE 50$, WE CRUDE WILL RESUME IT'S UPTREND AS WAVE 5 AND WE CAN SEE 51.55/55/57+++.

TRADE IDEAS:
1. BUY WITH SL 45$ for tgts: 47.06, 47.65-47.84-48, 48.35-48.60.
2. SELL WITH SL 50$ between 47.65-48.60 for [44.4], 43.4, 42.55, [41.1], 40.34, 38.89, 37.82, 36.95, [35.29].


MCX
CMP 3088 | Res: 3146/3355 | Sup: 2997/3021

As long as 3021 supports, we can see 3147 again, and further, 3170-3180, 3200-3221, 3250-3270.
If resisted by 3355, and any reversal from the above levels, we will see 2997 again and further, 2967, 2888, 2840, 2762, 2653.

TRADE IDEAS:
1. Buy crude with sl 3021 for 3147, 3170-3180, 3200-3221, 3250-3270.
2. Sell crude with sl 3363 between 3200-3270, for 2997, 2967, 2888, 2840, 2762, 2653.

ABOVE 3355, CRUDE WILL RESUME IT'S UPTREND.





READ DISCLAIMER BEFORE TAKING ANY TRADE DECISION.

NYMEX: Crude Analysis 15-Jun-2016

Is this in play?

24-Apr-2016

Bear Scenario:

As long as 35.2 supports, we can see 44.8 first, and further 45.4, 46.4-46.8, 47.5-47.8, 49.2, 50.26.

If crude resisted by 50.91$ and any reversal from the above levels, first target 26$ and further targets 21, 19.89, 17.89$.


Original Post:

http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2016/04/crude-positioanl-analysis-24-apr-2016.html

15-Jun-2016

CMP: 47.81

If crude resisted by 48.68$, I expect to see 47.42, 46.95, 46.66-46.48, 46.18, 45.77, 45.41 next.

Crude Update 20-Apr-2016 - Is the history repeating again?

CMP 41.75$
Res: 42.9
Supports: 37.6/35.23

Crude is trading at important level. Immediate big down moves / lower lows  are in doubt as of now, because, crude has broken important resistance 42.46$ and made high 42.85/42.88.

For any sell strict n max sl must be 42.9$. If break likely scenarios
1. We have started bull move. If this is the case, buy on dips will be the main strategy.
2. We have started bigger correction with resistance at 62.6$. If this is the case, correction may last for longer time.

Seasonal Crude Moves based on the historical charts:
Feb/Mar - Aug/Oct - BULL MOVE.

Reference Charts:
http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2016/01/update-trading-ideas-historical.html

WTI Crude, MCX Crude Positional View 21-Feb-2016

WTI Crude

CMP 32.08$
Supports:26.04
Resistances: 50.91/62.57


As per my analysis,

Based on Montyly chart, As long as 50.91/62.57, resists, I expect to see 26.21 (done), 20.49$ (Ultimate target) positionally. Further, we may see extended targets as 16.74.

Based on Daily chart, If crude resisted by 34.19/34.80, I expect to see 26.21$ first and 26.04 again. Further, I expect to see, 20.49, 16.74.

Trade Idea:For any sell, Max and Strict SL 34.25/35$ for min 26.3$ and further targets 20.55, 16.89$.

MCX Crude

CMP: 2202
As long as MCX Crude resisted by 2344, I expect to see 1705, 1658-1631, 1509-1491 and further 999/989 Long term positionally.

Trade Idea:
For any Sell SL 2344
Max and Strict SL 2415

Targets: 1705, 1658-1631, 1509-1491 and further 989

This analysis is for study purpose only.
Read Disclaimer always before taking any trading decision.
All the best.

CRUDE ANALYSIS 23-Oct-2015

11-Nov-2015 - Update 

48.00-50.00/47.89 --> Hit targets 45, 43$.

04-Nov-2015 - Present View

8:41 AM IST
CMP 47.89

Main View:
Can Sell crude at cmp or on rise between 48.00-50.00, with max sl 51$ for downside targets 45, 43, 42.5, 41, 38..

Alternate view:
1. Sell NYMEX Crude at cmp 47.89, Max SL 48.40, TGTs: 47.00, 46.65, 46.40.
2. Buy Crude between 47.00-46.15, Max SL 45.5, TGTs: 48.3, 49, 49.5.
3. Sell Crude between 48.00- 50.00, SL Max 51$, TGTs: 45, 43, 42.5, 41, 38.

03-Nov-2015 - Present View

[11/3, 7:04 AM] Arockia: My present view on CRUDE 03-Nov-2015:

1. Sell on rise at cmp 46.30 with max sl 46.75 for 45.61, 45.15, 44.65, 44.15$.

2. Buy between 44.5-43.5, sl 42.45$ for 46.70, 47.6, 48$

3. Sell between 48-50$, sl 51$, tgt 42.5, 41, 38$.

All the best. 

Break of 50.91$ sell is invalid and can show 53$

Break of 42..57 buy is invalid and can see 41/38$.

But I am positionally still bearish.

MCX Chart

24-Oct-2015 10:10 AM IST

US OIL

As long as USO resisted by 15.31/16.20 I expect to see 12.37 first. Other targets: 14.12, [13.74], 13.37, 13.14, [12.77], 12.54, [12.37] n more. Further 11.66-11.20.

As you can see USO broken important supports 14.21/14.16.

23-Oct-2015 8:34 PM IST

Cmp 2937

Sell crude 2937 or on rise SL 3093, tgt 2489.

Best sell entry can be 2950-2990.

Targets: 2710, 2623, 2572, 2489.

This is based on my analysis.

TRADE AT YOUR RISK.

All the best.

NYMEX Crude

As long as Crude resisted by 50.91/47.48, I expect to see [43.46], 42.44, [41.80], 41.44, 40.55, [39.96], 39.62, 39.20, [38.28] n more.

Now for any positional sell, SL can be max 46.15/47.60(max).

MCX Crude

As long as MCX Crude resisted by 3074/3302, I expect to see [2710], 2623, 2572, [2489] n more.

For any sell max SL can be 3091.

ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO:

If 43.70 supports, we can see 50.90$/3277 again.

But, Still I am with Down move view.

This is based on my analysis.

READ DISCLAIMER BEFORE TAKING ANY TRADE DECISION.

ALL THE BEST.

THANKS.

Crude Analysis 01-Oct-2015 and 02-Oct-2015

Update 06-Oct-2015 - 6:21 PM IST

CMP 46.67
As long as 47.06 resists, I expect to see, 45, 43.89, 43.1, 42.62, 41.91, 41.44, 40.72.

 

 

 05-Oct-2015

Still I am bearish, my sl strict to 47.1/48.15$ max.

03-Oct-2015

Update: SL 45.72 TAKEN OUT. HIGH 45.78. Now need to reanalyse my chart. Thanks

02-Oct-2015

CMP 44.59

As long as crude resisted by 45.72/47.06 I expect to see 43.70, 43.28, 42.70, 42.35, 42.22, 41.77, 41.19, 40.54, 40.30, 40.04, 39.35.

Trade Idea:
Sell Crude at cmp 44.59 with max SL 45.80/47.10 (max).
Targets: [43.35], 42.2, [41.34], 40.10, [39.35].

Below 37.83, as per my positional view, I expect to see 34, 28, 21.

UPDATE 01-OCT-2015

As per my previous analysis, Crude done  45.36, 45.88, High 46.30.

25-Sep-2015: I expect to see reversal between 46-47.2, Can sell with max sl 48.1, if we reach the reversal levels.

 Present Chart and its targets:

Targets: 43.21, 42.34-41.9, 41.2 - 39.65, Now for any Sell SL 48.1

Previous Analysis 22-Sep-2015 to 25-Sep-2015 

http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2015/09/crude-present-view-22-sep-2015.html

WTI/NYMEX Crude View 13-Aug-2015

5:17 pm IST.

CMP 43.11.

THIS VIEW IS NOT YET CONFIRMED. 

IF ANYONE IS IN TRADE PLEASE EXIT.

CMP: 43.39

Crude View Short Term:
As  per the positional view view on 01-Aug-2015, crude reached 43-42.90 from 45.28. But still I expect to see 42.15, 41.65, 41.05, 40.89 positionally.

Now,
If 42.69 holds support, I expect to see upside correction. Upside targets are: 44.55-44.81, 45.75-46, 46.85-47.19.
Retracement levels: 47.19, 50.

If you notice in the above chart, wave 3 extended and made 7 waves. wave 3 of 3 extended 261.8%.

As of now, for any buy max stop loss is 42.60. Below 42.60, I expect my positional downside targets 42.15, 41.65, 41.05, 40.89.


Positional View:
http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2015/08/wti-crude-positional-analysis-01-aug.html
As of now, I still expect the lower targets as per this view. But, now, for short term,  SL 48.65/49.55 is invalid and targets are still valid.

ALL THE BEST.
TRADE AT YOUR RISK. READ DISCLAIMER BEFORE TAKING TRADE DECISION.

WTI Crude Positional Analysis 01-Aug-2015

Hi Friends,
READ DISCLAIMER BEFORE TAKING TRADING DECISION.
ORIGINAL POST
http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2015/08/wti-crude-positional-analysis-01-aug.html

Update 2:

04-Aug-2015
3:26 AM IST
CMP 45.28

Where are we heading now?
As long as Crude resisted by 49.50, we are heading to
03-Aug-2014 targets:
45.32, 44.57. 43.76, 43, 41.63, 41.05, 40.89.

04-Aug-2015 targets:
44.69, 43.90, 42.96, 42.72, 42.15.
Targets: 44.7-44.55, 43.90-43.75, 43-42.90, 42.15, 41.65, 41.05, 40.89
All the best.

Update 1

03-Aug-2015
Crude is ready for lower lows.
CMP 46.39
For Sellers SL: 48.65/49.55 STRICT.
Targets: 45.32, 44.57. 43.76, 43, 41.63, 41.05, 40.89.

01-Aug-2015
Hi Friends,
READ DISCLAIMER BEFORE TAKING TRADING DECISION.

01-Aug-2015
CMP 46.89

As per my monthly chart,
Support: 33.96
Resistance: 147.90

Crude broken multi year support/trend line 3 times (Jan, March, July 2015) and closed below the trend line this month also.

As per my chart, I still expect to see lower lows and expecting 41.55, 36.89, 34.01, 28.01, 24.89, 21$ positionally.



As per my weekly chart,

crude has done nearly 323.6% as wave 3. And made correction of upto 62.57 from the low 43.58.
As per my view, crude made irregular correction and made a new low at 42.42 and risen up.
If you notice, crude made more than 23.6% of wave 3 which is normal correction and started the fall.

And I am still expecting lower low in crude to complete WAVE III (higher tf) at min 41.15$.

As per my Daily chart,

If crude resisted by 62.57$, I expect to see minimum 43.58, 42.42, 41.89(41.66)$.

Daily chart detailed view:

Based on my H4 chart,
we have started the down fall in crude from 62.57 and started as leading diagonal (rare wave formation at wave 1).

If this veiw correct, then I expect to see the break of 46.69 which is the base support as of now.

I have given different wave calculations in the chart, please refer by colors of the wave count.

As per my H1 Chart,
If 61.56 is the start of wave 3, we are still in down trend.
If you notice, wave 3 completed nearly 261.8% and retraced 23.6% as wave 4 at (53.81/53.49).

But as per my wave count wave 5 is not yet completed and expecting another down move minimum 46.47 and it is not limited to.

Alternate view 1:
Based on 30M chart, there is different view as of now.
NOTE: I AM STILL BEARISH and NOT convinced with this up move.
If still the correction not yet completed and 46.69 supports, there is possibility of we will see 49.55/50.18/50.63/51.15/51.29.

As per my 15M chart,
I expect to see crude below 46.69. Break of 46.69 confirms the down move.

Alternate View 2:
check the targets of 30M chart for targets.

Alternate View 3:
Based on 5M chart,
check 30M chart for targets.

Based on 5M chart,
positionally, I still expect to see lower lows below 46.69.

Trade Ideas:
For Sellers SL: 48.65/49.55 STRICT.
For Buyers SL: 46.60

For targets, check the above analyses.

Positional SL 62.65. Targets: 41.55, 36.89.

Long Term Targets: 41.55, 36.89, 34.01, 28.01, 24.89, 21$.

ALL THE BEST.

READ DISCLAIMER BEFORE TAKING TRADING DECISION.



LAST YEAR (2014 AUGUST) ANALYSIS:
WTI/NYMEX: http://freecommodityanalysis.blogspot.in/2014/08/positional-view-mcx-crude-01-aug-2014.html

MCX: http://freecommodityanalysis.blogspot.in/2014/08/positional-view-mcx-crude-01-aug-2014.html



OTHER CHARTS:
Recent history of Crude Ups/Downs
 

 

NYMEX Crude Analysis 30-June-2015

8:29 AM IST
Still the blow view is valid and I stick with this.
http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2015/06/wti-crude-analysis-06-jun-2015.html

WILL BE UPDATING MY POSITIONAL ANALYSIS TOMORROW. STAY TUNED.

 7:28 AM IST
CMP 58.12
Support: 58
Resistance: 60/61.60.

SMALL SL 58$ HIT NOW. THIS VIEW IS INVALID .


As long as crude supported by 58$, I expect to see 59.21 again. Further, I expect to see 59.34, 59.55, 59.80, 60.03, 60.21, 60.50-60.55, 60.73.

As long as Crude resisted by 61.6/62.6, I expect to see 58, 56.50 and more down side.

Trade Ideas:
1. Buy Crude at cmp 58.15, SL 58/57.75 max, TGTs: [59.21], 59.34, 59.55, 59.80, [60.03], 60.21, [60.50-60.55], 60.73.
2. Sell between 60.20-60.90, SL 61.65, TGTs: 59.55, 59.05, 58.55, 58, 57.55, 57.05, 56.50.
3. Sell below 58 with SL 59.30 for  58.55, 58, 57.55, 57.05, 56.50.

All the best.

WTI Crude Analysis 06-Jun-2015

CMP 58.94
Resistances: 61.56/62.57
Supports: 56.84/56.50

---

Previous Analysis: http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2015/05/wti-crude-anjalysis-update-28-may-2015.html

02-June-2015 3:58 PM IST

CMP: 60.91
As long as crude resisted by 62.57, I am bearish and expecting to see 59.52, 58.81, 58.26, 56.50, 55.07, 54.18. 52.75.

---

Primary View:

As per my analysis, Crude has done 23.6% (normal retracement level of wave 4) retracement of Wave 3 at 58.71 and made high of 62.57.

Now, if Crude resisted by 61.56 we can see lower levels (56.84,-56.50, 55.5, 54.06, 53.18, [51.74], 49.41, 47.11, [45.68], 43.36, 41.90).

Alternate View:

Any break of 61.56/62.57 confirms the correction is not yet over and we may see 63.44, 66.09, 66.56, 68.93.

Next retracement level is at 68$ level.

Supports: 56.84/56.50. break of these supports, this view is invalid.

Trade Ideas:

These are advanced sell levels and stop loss may vary after the trade activation.

1. Sell Crude at cmp 58.94 or between 59.2-60.55, Max SL 61.70/62.65, TGTs: 56.84,-56.50, 55.5, 54.06, 53.18, [51.74], 49.41, 47.11, [45.68], 43.36, 41.90

2. Buy Crude above 61. 56 for 63.44, 66.09, 66.56, 68.93 with Strict SL 56.75/56.4.

3. Sell Below 56.45 for 55.5, 54.06, 53.18, [51.74], 49.41, 47.11, [45.68], 43.36, 41.90 with SL 61.70/62.65.

Crude Calls Update -Calls Given on 27-May-2015, 26-May-2015

28-May-2015 9:53 PM IST

Sell Crude at cmp 56.87 or between 57.10-57.30 if you get, Max SL 57.45, TGTs: 56.50, 56.3, 55.95 and other positional targets.

Sell Crude at cmp 3650 or between 3665-3675, Max SL 3680, TGTs: 3625, 3589, 3555, 3534, 3501.

SL HIT.

 

 Today's Calls 27-May-2015, 26-May-2015

Original Posts:
http://freecommodityanalysis.blogspot.in/2015/05/todays-calls-26-may-2015.html
http://freecommodityanalysis.blogspot.in/2015/05/todays-calls-27-may-2015.html

Today's Calls 27-May-2015

12:14 PM IST
Sell Crude at cmp 3771, Strict SL 3783(max) TGTs: 3755, 3734, 3721, 3713, 3701, 3689, 3655, 3634, 3621. All the best.
My sl 3783 gone

[5/27, 3:14 PM] ckacraj: Still i expect to see 3755,3734,3721,3713,3701,3689,3655,3634,3621 in crude.
Now sl is 3791.

Today's Calls 26-May-2015

5:33 AM IST:
CMP 59.84
As long as Crude resisted by 60.22/60.93, I expect 59.30, [59.1], 58.93, 58.39, [57.95], 57.68, [57.25], 56.79, [56.08] n more.
For any sell, SL can be 60.25.

Chart on 26-May-2015 5:33 AM IST

Present Chart 28-May-2015 6:30 PM IST

WTI Crude Analysis Update 28-May-2015

04-Jun3-2015 6:50 PM IST

Targets 59.52, 58.81, 58.26 done from 60.91.

Next supports: 57.71, 56.50, more fall can be seen and positional targets are: 55.07, 54.18. 52.75 and more. Watch for updates.

 

02-June-2015 3:58 PM IST

CMP: 60.91
As long as crude resisted by 62.57, I am bearish and expecting to see 59.52, 58.81, 58.26, 56.50, 55.07, 54.18. 52.75.
Break of 59.33 needed for down move.

Alternate View:
If crude breaks 62.57, I expect to see 63.4, 66, 67, 68.9. Support 56.50.

For any buy SL: 56.50
For any Sell SL 62.65.

 I am still bearish and expecting lower levels.
Sell can be initiated at cmp 60.78 with max sl 62.65 for downside targets.

 

 

Present Chart: 28-May-2015 6:21 AM IST

18-May-2015 7:31 AM IST

http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2015/05/wti-crude-oil-analysis-18-may-2015.html

CMP 59.84

Trade Idea:
One can Sell Crude below 58.1 or at cmp 59.84 or betweeen 60.1-61.1 with SL 61.9/62.6(max).
Targets: 57.8, 57.4, 55.5, 53, 51, 47, 45.5.

Today's Calls 26-May-2015

http://freecommodityanalysis.blogspot.in/2015/05/todays-calls-26-may-2015.html
5:33 AM IST:
CMP 59.84
As long as Crude resisted by 60.22/60.93, I expect 59.30, [59.1], 58.93, 58.39, [57.95], 57.68, [57.25], 56.79, [56.08] n more.
For any sell, SL can be 60.25.

Today's Calls 27-May-2015

http://freecommodityanalysis.blogspot.in/2015/05/todays-calls-27-may-2015.html
4:50 PM IST
Sell Crude between 58.4-58.75, SL 59$, TGTs: 58.1, 57.9, 57.7, 57.5, 57.2, 56.8, 55.8, 55.

Original Analysis:

1. http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2015/05/wti-crude-oil-analysis-18-may-2015.html
2. http://freecommodityanalysis.blogspot.in/2015/05/todays-calls-26-may-2015.html
3. http://freecommodityanalysis.blogspot.in/2015/05/todays-calls-27-may-2015.html