CRUDE ANALYSIS 16-Jul-2016

CMP 45.98
Res: 46.9/49.98
Sup: 45/44.69/44.40

As long as 45$ supports, we can see 47.06$ first. Further 47.65-47.84-48, 48.35-48.60.

If crude resisted by 50$ and any reversal from the above levels (i.e., 47.65-47.84-48, 48.35-48.60), we can see 44.4$ again. And further, 43.4/42.55/41.1/40.34/38.89/37.82/36.95/35.29.


IMPORTANT LEVEL TO WATCH: 47.65-48.60.

ABOVE 50$, WE CRUDE WILL RESUME IT'S UPTREND AS WAVE 5 AND WE CAN SEE 51.55/55/57+++.

TRADE IDEAS:
1. BUY WITH SL 45$ for tgts: 47.06, 47.65-47.84-48, 48.35-48.60.
2. SELL WITH SL 50$ between 47.65-48.60 for [44.4], 43.4, 42.55, [41.1], 40.34, 38.89, 37.82, 36.95, [35.29].


MCX
CMP 3088 | Res: 3146/3355 | Sup: 2997/3021

As long as 3021 supports, we can see 3147 again, and further, 3170-3180, 3200-3221, 3250-3270.
If resisted by 3355, and any reversal from the above levels, we will see 2997 again and further, 2967, 2888, 2840, 2762, 2653.

TRADE IDEAS:
1. Buy crude with sl 3021 for 3147, 3170-3180, 3200-3221, 3250-3270.
2. Sell crude with sl 3363 between 3200-3270, for 2997, 2967, 2888, 2840, 2762, 2653.

ABOVE 3355, CRUDE WILL RESUME IT'S UPTREND.





READ DISCLAIMER BEFORE TAKING ANY TRADE DECISION.

Crude Positional Analysis 24-Apr-2016

10-Jun-2016

CMP 48.94$
Now I am little bit worried about my bearish scenario, but still there is some possibility out there.
For my bearish and bullish scenario, please check:
http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2016/04/crude-positioanl-analysis-24-apr-2016.html

[6/11, 9:35 PM] Arockia: Weekly Analysis:

If crude closes below 48.89, highly bearish.

Early signs:

1. Weekly candle is gravestone doji.

2. Closed below MA 89.

Confirmation will be in coming week.

As of now, need to watch. No positional trades.

Now res is at 51.65$. Sellers sl max 51.65$ if u want to trade.

My targets: 47.3/45.55/43/41.55 if 51.65$ resists.

Min tgt done at 49.3$. Next small tgts can be 48.55/47.3$.

NOTE: THIS VIEW IS VALID AS LONG AS 51.65$ RESISTS.

[6/11, 9:39 PM] Arockia: Seasonality reversals:

May-Jun OR Aug-Sep TO Feb - BEARISH.

Jan-Feb To May-Jun OR Aug-Sep - BULLISH.

YEARLY

BUY IN MAR N SELL AT MAY/JUN

SELL IN JUN OR SEP N BUY AT DEC/JAN

Update 16-May-2016

 CMP 47.26

2015 Chart:

 2016 Chart:

Is history going to repeat again between May-June/July 2016?

 24-Apr-2016

CMP 43.71

Supports: 26/9.75$
Resistances: 62.57/112.21

Based on monthly chart, still I expect to see lower levels below 26$ positionally.

Bear Scenario:

As long as 35.2 supports, we can see 44.8 first, and further 45.4, 46.4-46.8, 47.5-47.8, 49.2, 50.26.
If crude resisted by 50.91$ and any reversal from the above levels, first target 26$ and further targets 21, 19.89, 17.89$.

Bull scenario:

Based on Weekly chart,
As long as 35.2 supports, I expect to see 51.55$ first, further we can see 55.45, 57.88, [61.7-64.1], 78.

Based on Daily chart,
As long as 37.60/35.23 supports, I expect to see [44.8], 46.55, 47.55, [49.3-50.35], 56.55.

Seasonality Analysis:

As per my seasonlity analysis, crude is bullish between Feb - Aug and bearish between Aug/Oct - Jan/Feb.

If history repeats, we can see lower low around December 2016.

Crude Update 20-Apr-2016 - Is the history repeating again?

CMP 41.75$
Res: 42.9
Supports: 37.6/35.23

Crude is trading at important level. Immediate big down moves / lower lows  are in doubt as of now, because, crude has broken important resistance 42.46$ and made high 42.85/42.88.

For any sell strict n max sl must be 42.9$. If break likely scenarios
1. We have started bull move. If this is the case, buy on dips will be the main strategy.
2. We have started bigger correction with resistance at 62.6$. If this is the case, correction may last for longer time.

Seasonal Crude Moves based on the historical charts:
Feb/Mar - Aug/Oct - BULL MOVE.

Reference Charts:
http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2016/01/update-trading-ideas-historical.html

Crude Analysis 01-Apr-2016

View 08-Apr-2016 1:28 PM IST

CMP 38.33

Crude broken important res 38.27, Now I expect to see 39.70, 40.3-40.45, 40.70-40.90, 41.55.

If crude resisted by 42.46$ again fall will start and min target 35.23. Other targets, please check previous views.

View 08-Apr-2016 5:55 AM IST

CMP: 37.58

Supports: 36.67, 35.23

Resistances:  38.27, 42.46

As per the below chart,

Small breakout levels: 38.27/36.67.

Positional breakout levels: 42.46/35.23.

Above 38.27, we may see 39, 39.7, 40.34, 40.8, 41.55. Above 42.46, bull.

As long as 42.46 resists and any break below 35.23$, positionally bearish and we will see 26$ again. refer previous update for downside targets.

So, as of now, aggressive shorts not preferred.

Levels to watch: 39.7 - 40.8 if we reach there.

Chart 1

Chart 2 for some ideas

Thanks.

 

View 07-Apr-2016

Update 8:41 PM IST

 Any break of 35.23, I expect 32.15, 31.60, 28.38, 26.31, 22.42, 20.89, 19.89

 Update 6:03 PM IST

37.34, 37.13, 36.75-36.69, 36.58, 36.41-36.39, 36.18-36.12 (level to watch if we reach here), 35.97-25.95, 35.58, 35.23

CMP 37.82$
Now, If crude resisted by 38.3$, I expect to see 37.55$ again and further 37.11, 36.76, 36.39, 36.12, 36.00-35.95, 35.23. if crude breaks 35.2$ Crude will be very weak.
View valid as long as 38.3$ holds res.

Thanks.

Chart Analysis 07-Apr-2016

 

 

 View 06-Apr-2016

8:30 PM: SL NOT SAFE, MADE HIGH 37.53 till now. Still my view sell on rise only.

I expect this up move to be completed between 37-37.25$.

Below 36.44 bearish and expecting 36.24 first and my other targets 35.02-34.96, 34.25, 33.47, 32.48-32.36, 31.81....

Fresh sell can be initiated at cmp 36.87 or between 37-37.25 with SL 37.37/37.55(max) for the above targets.

Thanks.

 

Update 02-Apr-2016

36.26-36.02, 35.34, 35.02-34.96, 34.25, 33.47, 32.48-32.36, 31.81...

 

01-Apr-2016

CMP 37.71$
Resistances: 39.83/42.46$
Support: 35.94$


Crude is trading at important level between 37.85-37.48.

Now support seen around 37.56.
Small resistance is at 38.35/39.01$.


As long as Crude resisted by 39.83/42.46, I am bearish and expecting [36.76$] first.
Further targets: 36.18-35.94, [35.34-35.26], 34.25, [33.1], 32.44-32.30, [31.8], 30.86, 29.91, 27.88, [26.04].
Below 26$, I expect 21/19.89$.

Thanks,
Read Disclaimer before making any trade decision.

-------------------------------------------------

Previous Analysis and result:

http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2016/03/crude-analysis-19-mar-2016.html

As long as crude resisted by 42.46$, we can see 26$ first positionally and further 21/19.89$.
Targets: 38.57, 36.18, 34.24, 32.32, 30.85, 27.54, 26.04.

As long as long as crude resisted by 42.46$, I expect to see 40.92, 40.16-39.96, 39.21, 38.75-38.44.

Check the above post for Alternative scenario.

Crude Analysis 19-Mar-2016

CMP 41.23
Resistance: 42.46
Support: 35.94

Previous Analyses:

http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2016/02/crude-view-18-feb-2016.html
http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2016/03/crude.html
http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2016/03/crude-analysis-13-mar-2016.html

For previous Charts, please check at the BOTTOM of the Page.

19-Mar-2016

Primary Scenario:

Crude has done 61.8% retracement of wave 3 and more than 200% of wave w[a].

 

As long as crude resisted by 42.46$, we can see 26$ first positionally and further 21/19.89$.
Targets: 38.57, 36.18, 34.24, 32.32, 30.85, 27.54, 26.04.

Alternate Scenario:

If you notice the below charts, we have done the upside target level, which was predicted earlier.

Usually, wave 5 will be 100% of wave 1 or 61.8% of wave 1-3.  As you can see the below chart, we have not done any of these levels, which lies at 43.5/44$.

What may happen, if this up move continues?

Crude can come down to 40/39.2 level and if supported by 36$ again it can shoot up to 43.5/44$ level.

Retracement levels: 40.93/39.97/39.21/38.44/37.86 (level to watch if we reach here), 35.94(100%).

As long as long as crude resisted by 42.46$, I expect to see 40.92, 40.16-39.96, 39.21, 38.75-38.44.

And If crude supported by 35.94$, it can take out 42.46$ and can reach 43.5/44$.

Previous Analyses - Charts:

14-Feb-2016

02-Mar-2016

13-Mar-2016

Crude Analysis 13-Mar-2016

 CMP 38.51

Previous Analysis
http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2016/03/crude.html



Supports: 37.19/36.12$
Resistance: 39$

Min target done at 38.7 as per my previous analysis.

As long as 37.15/36.1$ supports, I expect to see 39.8$ first and further 40.2-40.9$.

Reversal Zone 40-41$.
If Crude resisted by the above zone, again another fall min 26$.

Crude Analysis 02-Mar-2016

CMP 34.07


02-Mar-2016
As long as crude supported by 32.2/30.5, I expect to see 35, [35.4-35.55], 36.05-36.25, 36.5 (done), [37.5-37.6], 37.8, 38.48, 39.28.

Analysis as on 14-Feb-2016

As long as crude supported by 26.04/28.69$, I expect to see 35/35.48, 36/36.46.
http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2016/02/crude-view-18-feb-2016.html

14-Feb-2016 to 02-Mar-2016

Some interesting Charts at W4:

Chart 1 - Move from the low 42.42

Chart 2 - Move from the low 26.04

Chart Comparison:

Does crude going to make it again? If so what is expected from here?

As long as crude supported by 32.2/30.5, I expect to see 35, [35.4-35.55], 36.05-36.25, 36.5, [37.5-37.6], 37.8, 38.48, 39.28.

Let us wait and watch.

Crude View 18-Feb-2016

CMP 33.49$

Supports: 28.69/26$
Resistances: 50.91/43.59$.

Analysis as on 14-Feb-2016

As long as crude supported by 26.04/28.69$, I expect to see 35/35/.48, 36/36.46.

I expect to see reversal between 35%-37$.

Analysis as on 18-Feb-2016

Chart as on 18-Feb-2016

Still I expect to another fall below 26% and expecting minimum 21$ positionally.

UPDATE Trading Ideas, Historical Seasonal Analysis of Crude given long time back (15-May-2015, 1-Aug-2015)

26-Jan-2015 12:51 PM IST

Original Posts:

15-May-2015

http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2015/05/nymex-crude-chart-for-ideas-15-may-2015.html

LONG TERM VIEW
Based on Historical Chart, I expect to see 45.2, 37.9, 33.2, 30.2, 22.5 positionally if 62.57 is the end of WAVE 4 of c of B.

CMP was 59.80

1-Aug-2015

http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2015/08/wti-crude-positional-analysis-01-aug.html

CMP was 45.28

Historical Ups and Downs with Seasonality.

What is expected now?


I am telling from long time back, I expect to se 21/19.89%.  But, Crude has done minimum retracement of 50% (30.08). Next 22.46.

Previous Comments/Posts:

[1/25 4:47 AM][25-Jan-2016] Arockia: Support 27.4$, Resistance 38.4$
We may see xyz pattern or bigger ▶ pattern as wave 4. Mostly it won't break 38.4$.

Actual/Bigger Resistance is only at 50.91$

25-Jan-2016

http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2016/01/nymexwti-crude-view-15-jan-2016.html

21-Jan-2016

http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2016/01/crude-analysis-21-jan-2015.html





My ultimate targets: 28.70, 27.58, 25.66, 20.69, 19.41, 18$


NOTE: THIS IS BASED ON MY OWN ANALYSIS, AND EACH ONE'S WAVE COUNT/VIEWS MAY DIFFER. THIS IS FOR STUDY PURPOSE ONLY. IF ANYONE TRADING BASED ON THIS, TRADE AT YOUR RISK. ALWAYS, READ DISCLAIMER BEFORE TAKING ANY TRADING DECISION.

CRUDE ANALYSIS 23-Oct-2015

11-Nov-2015 - Update 

48.00-50.00/47.89 --> Hit targets 45, 43$.

04-Nov-2015 - Present View

8:41 AM IST
CMP 47.89

Main View:
Can Sell crude at cmp or on rise between 48.00-50.00, with max sl 51$ for downside targets 45, 43, 42.5, 41, 38..

Alternate view:
1. Sell NYMEX Crude at cmp 47.89, Max SL 48.40, TGTs: 47.00, 46.65, 46.40.
2. Buy Crude between 47.00-46.15, Max SL 45.5, TGTs: 48.3, 49, 49.5.
3. Sell Crude between 48.00- 50.00, SL Max 51$, TGTs: 45, 43, 42.5, 41, 38.

03-Nov-2015 - Present View

[11/3, 7:04 AM] Arockia: My present view on CRUDE 03-Nov-2015:

1. Sell on rise at cmp 46.30 with max sl 46.75 for 45.61, 45.15, 44.65, 44.15$.

2. Buy between 44.5-43.5, sl 42.45$ for 46.70, 47.6, 48$

3. Sell between 48-50$, sl 51$, tgt 42.5, 41, 38$.

All the best. 

Break of 50.91$ sell is invalid and can show 53$

Break of 42..57 buy is invalid and can see 41/38$.

But I am positionally still bearish.

MCX Chart

24-Oct-2015 10:10 AM IST

US OIL

As long as USO resisted by 15.31/16.20 I expect to see 12.37 first. Other targets: 14.12, [13.74], 13.37, 13.14, [12.77], 12.54, [12.37] n more. Further 11.66-11.20.

As you can see USO broken important supports 14.21/14.16.

23-Oct-2015 8:34 PM IST

Cmp 2937

Sell crude 2937 or on rise SL 3093, tgt 2489.

Best sell entry can be 2950-2990.

Targets: 2710, 2623, 2572, 2489.

This is based on my analysis.

TRADE AT YOUR RISK.

All the best.

NYMEX Crude

As long as Crude resisted by 50.91/47.48, I expect to see [43.46], 42.44, [41.80], 41.44, 40.55, [39.96], 39.62, 39.20, [38.28] n more.

Now for any positional sell, SL can be max 46.15/47.60(max).

MCX Crude

As long as MCX Crude resisted by 3074/3302, I expect to see [2710], 2623, 2572, [2489] n more.

For any sell max SL can be 3091.

ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO:

If 43.70 supports, we can see 50.90$/3277 again.

But, Still I am with Down move view.

This is based on my analysis.

READ DISCLAIMER BEFORE TAKING ANY TRADE DECISION.

ALL THE BEST.

THANKS.