Crude Positional Analysis 18-Dec-2014

Good Morning Friends.
Positionally, I am still bearish. Still I expect to see 50.7-50.54/48.00-47.73.

As of now, the resistance is at 77.80/78. As long as 77.80, resists, my strategy will be SELL ON RISE.

NOTE: This view is based on Monthly/Weekly/Daily charts.
Now small resistance is around 63.7/64.4.


As per my analysis, we are in wave 4 of Wave 5 and we have done minimum (normal) correction at 58.94. If this is the end of wave 4 of w5, then my ultimate target would be 46.00-45.34-45.00.

Wave 4 of Wave 5 other retracement levels: 57.35 (done), (made high 58.94) 59.68, 61.56, 63.43, 64.86, 66.11.

For this view to be valid, crude must break 53.60 first.

Trade Idea: Risk takers can enter SELL at cmp 56.90/59.3, with strict SL 57.3/59.
OR BETTER WE CAN WAIT FOR CLEAR VIEW OF THE TREND.


Any move above 69.7, my view will be invalid and I will considering the move as positional long term BIG UP move.

Let us wait and watch how the market unfolds.

NOTE: We are nearing the end of down move/may be we would have completed, so now shorting is highly risky.
This analysis is for learning purpose only. TRADE AT YOUR RISK. Thanks.

NYMEX CRUDE View 01-Dec-2014

CMP 65.83
Resistance: 77.80

As per my view, we have started wave 5 at 77.80 from the bigger picture.
As usual, my strategy still SELL ON RISE.

I expect the following levels in Crude.
Retracement Levels: [64.48], 57.34, 50.89, 33.19 (100%).
As per wave 1: 57.20.
As per wave 0-3: 63.11, 58.44, 57.3, [53.88], 50.48, 47.32, 38.95.

My ideal targets: 64.7-[64.48]-64.3, 63.3-[63.11]-63.00, 58.7-[58.44]-58.2, 57.5-[57.34]-[57.2]-57.00, 54-[53.88]-53.6, 50.89, 50.48, 47.32, 38.95.


Crude is now at important retracement level 61.8% (around 64.5). If crude resisted by 77.80/78 I expect the following downside targets 63.3-63.11, 58.7-58.44, 57.6-57.34, 54.10-53.88, 50.9-50.48, 47.6-47.32.

NYMEX Crude Positional Analysis 01-Nov-2014

78.5-78.25, 77.5, [76.3] DONE.

CMP 80.71
Based on my Monthly/Weekly chart, If crude resisted by 114.82, 112.21, I expect minimum 75, 72.5.
Other targets: 75.25-74.95, 72.75-72.35, 66-65.65, 63.3-63.05, 60-59.75, 57.5-57.15, 50-50.45, 48.25-47.9.

Based on my Daily chart, If crude resisted by 107.67, I expect 78.8-78.3.
Crude already done small targets at 83.25, 81.78.
But still I expect minimum 78.8-78.3. Other targets: 74.95, 73.86.

If crude resisted by 94.89, I expect 77.9-77.67-77.5, 73.8-73.65, 73.4-73.20, 71.5-71.17-71, 69.3-69.18-69, 67.75-67.54-67.3, 67.3-67.07-67.

If crude resisted by 84.79, 82.87, I expect, 79.45 again.
Other targets: 78.26, 77.57, 76.20, 75.55, 74.27, 72.95, 72.45.

If crude supported by 79.55, I expect upside retracement.
Resistance 82.87
Retracement levels: 80.33 (done), 80.82, 81.21, 81.60, 81.89, 82.15, 82.87 (100%).
Reversal from any of these levels, my first target 79.55.

If crude supported by 79.55, I expect up move.
If 80.77 resists, I expect small down move towards 80 and then up move towards 81.5,
Other levels and targets plz, check the chart.
However, I expect 82.87 will resist and reversal from any level, first target 79.55.

Strategy: SELL ON RISE with Strict Stop Loss 83/85 for the below targets.
Positionally, my ultimate targets on the down side are: 78.5-78.25, 77.5, [76.3], 75-74.9, 73.5, [72.8].

THIS VIEW IS VALID AS LONG AS 83, 85 RESISTS. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.
ALL THE BEST. HAPPY TRADING!!!

High Level Chart