NYMEX: Crude Analysis 15-Jun-2016

Is this in play?

24-Apr-2016

Bear Scenario:

As long as 35.2 supports, we can see 44.8 first, and further 45.4, 46.4-46.8, 47.5-47.8, 49.2, 50.26.

If crude resisted by 50.91$ and any reversal from the above levels, first target 26$ and further targets 21, 19.89, 17.89$.


Original Post:

http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2016/04/crude-positioanl-analysis-24-apr-2016.html

15-Jun-2016

CMP: 47.81

If crude resisted by 48.68$, I expect to see 47.42, 46.95, 46.66-46.48, 46.18, 45.77, 45.41 next.

Crude Positional Analysis 24-Apr-2016

10-Jun-2016

CMP 48.94$
Now I am little bit worried about my bearish scenario, but still there is some possibility out there.
For my bearish and bullish scenario, please check:
http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2016/04/crude-positioanl-analysis-24-apr-2016.html

[6/11, 9:35 PM] Arockia: Weekly Analysis:

If crude closes below 48.89, highly bearish.

Early signs:

1. Weekly candle is gravestone doji.

2. Closed below MA 89.

Confirmation will be in coming week.

As of now, need to watch. No positional trades.

Now res is at 51.65$. Sellers sl max 51.65$ if u want to trade.

My targets: 47.3/45.55/43/41.55 if 51.65$ resists.

Min tgt done at 49.3$. Next small tgts can be 48.55/47.3$.

NOTE: THIS VIEW IS VALID AS LONG AS 51.65$ RESISTS.

[6/11, 9:39 PM] Arockia: Seasonality reversals:

May-Jun OR Aug-Sep TO Feb - BEARISH.

Jan-Feb To May-Jun OR Aug-Sep - BULLISH.

YEARLY

BUY IN MAR N SELL AT MAY/JUN

SELL IN JUN OR SEP N BUY AT DEC/JAN

Update 16-May-2016

 CMP 47.26

2015 Chart:

 2016 Chart:

Is history going to repeat again between May-June/July 2016?

 24-Apr-2016

CMP 43.71

Supports: 26/9.75$
Resistances: 62.57/112.21

Based on monthly chart, still I expect to see lower levels below 26$ positionally.

Bear Scenario:

As long as 35.2 supports, we can see 44.8 first, and further 45.4, 46.4-46.8, 47.5-47.8, 49.2, 50.26.
If crude resisted by 50.91$ and any reversal from the above levels, first target 26$ and further targets 21, 19.89, 17.89$.

Bull scenario:

Based on Weekly chart,
As long as 35.2 supports, I expect to see 51.55$ first, further we can see 55.45, 57.88, [61.7-64.1], 78.

Based on Daily chart,
As long as 37.60/35.23 supports, I expect to see [44.8], 46.55, 47.55, [49.3-50.35], 56.55.

Seasonality Analysis:

As per my seasonlity analysis, crude is bullish between Feb - Aug and bearish between Aug/Oct - Jan/Feb.

If history repeats, we can see lower low around December 2016.

Crude Update 20-Apr-2016 - Is the history repeating again?

CMP 41.75$
Res: 42.9
Supports: 37.6/35.23

Crude is trading at important level. Immediate big down moves / lower lows  are in doubt as of now, because, crude has broken important resistance 42.46$ and made high 42.85/42.88.

For any sell strict n max sl must be 42.9$. If break likely scenarios
1. We have started bull move. If this is the case, buy on dips will be the main strategy.
2. We have started bigger correction with resistance at 62.6$. If this is the case, correction may last for longer time.

Seasonal Crude Moves based on the historical charts:
Feb/Mar - Aug/Oct - BULL MOVE.

Reference Charts:
http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2016/01/update-trading-ideas-historical.html

Crude Analysis 13-Mar-2016

 CMP 38.51

Previous Analysis
http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2016/03/crude.html



Supports: 37.19/36.12$
Resistance: 39$

Min target done at 38.7 as per my previous analysis.

As long as 37.15/36.1$ supports, I expect to see 39.8$ first and further 40.2-40.9$.

Reversal Zone 40-41$.
If Crude resisted by the above zone, again another fall min 26$.

Crude View 18-Feb-2016

CMP 33.49$

Supports: 28.69/26$
Resistances: 50.91/43.59$.

Analysis as on 14-Feb-2016

As long as crude supported by 26.04/28.69$, I expect to see 35/35/.48, 36/36.46.

I expect to see reversal between 35%-37$.

Analysis as on 18-Feb-2016

Chart as on 18-Feb-2016

Still I expect to another fall below 26% and expecting minimum 21$ positionally.

UPDATE Trading Ideas, Historical Seasonal Analysis of Crude given long time back (15-May-2015, 1-Aug-2015)

26-Jan-2015 12:51 PM IST

Original Posts:

15-May-2015

http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2015/05/nymex-crude-chart-for-ideas-15-may-2015.html

LONG TERM VIEW
Based on Historical Chart, I expect to see 45.2, 37.9, 33.2, 30.2, 22.5 positionally if 62.57 is the end of WAVE 4 of c of B.

CMP was 59.80

1-Aug-2015

http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2015/08/wti-crude-positional-analysis-01-aug.html

CMP was 45.28

Historical Ups and Downs with Seasonality.

What is expected now?


I am telling from long time back, I expect to se 21/19.89%.  But, Crude has done minimum retracement of 50% (30.08). Next 22.46.

Previous Comments/Posts:

[1/25 4:47 AM][25-Jan-2016] Arockia: Support 27.4$, Resistance 38.4$
We may see xyz pattern or bigger ▶ pattern as wave 4. Mostly it won't break 38.4$.

Actual/Bigger Resistance is only at 50.91$

25-Jan-2016

http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2016/01/nymexwti-crude-view-15-jan-2016.html

21-Jan-2016

http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2016/01/crude-analysis-21-jan-2015.html





My ultimate targets: 28.70, 27.58, 25.66, 20.69, 19.41, 18$


NOTE: THIS IS BASED ON MY OWN ANALYSIS, AND EACH ONE'S WAVE COUNT/VIEWS MAY DIFFER. THIS IS FOR STUDY PURPOSE ONLY. IF ANYONE TRADING BASED ON THIS, TRADE AT YOUR RISK. ALWAYS, READ DISCLAIMER BEFORE TAKING ANY TRADING DECISION.

Positoal Views of COMEX/NYMEX 21/22-Nov-2015

Gold 1077.14

Resistance: 1192$
Downside targets: 1065, 1031, 995, 969, 933, 903.
I expect Break of 1064 next fall.

Silver 14.14

Still my previous original view is in place.
http://freecommodityanalysis.blogspot.in/2014/10/comex-silver-view-26-oct-2014.html

Crude 41.57

Resistance: 50.92/61.27$
As long as crude resisted by 45.1/48.35/51$, I still expect to see my downside targets and expecting 40.1 first.
Further targets: 38.1, 36.90, 36.1.
Ultimate targets: 41.24, 31.1, 24.5, 22.1, 21$.

Copper 2.0323

Resistance: 2.4910$
Normal target done. Further targets: 1.9547, 1.8363, 1.6475.

http://freecommodityanalysis.blogspot.in/2014/10/comex-copper-view-13-oct-2014.html

Natural Gas 2.129

Resistances: 2.279/2.425/2.475
First target: 2.053/2.048, Further targets: 1.926, 1.888, 1.850.

Trade at your Risk. READ DISCLAIMER ALWAYS BEFORE TAKING ANY DECISION.
Thanks. All the best.

Crude Analysis 01-Oct-2015 and 02-Oct-2015

Update 06-Oct-2015 - 6:21 PM IST

CMP 46.67
As long as 47.06 resists, I expect to see, 45, 43.89, 43.1, 42.62, 41.91, 41.44, 40.72.

 

 

 05-Oct-2015

Still I am bearish, my sl strict to 47.1/48.15$ max.

03-Oct-2015

Update: SL 45.72 TAKEN OUT. HIGH 45.78. Now need to reanalyse my chart. Thanks

02-Oct-2015

CMP 44.59

As long as crude resisted by 45.72/47.06 I expect to see 43.70, 43.28, 42.70, 42.35, 42.22, 41.77, 41.19, 40.54, 40.30, 40.04, 39.35.

Trade Idea:
Sell Crude at cmp 44.59 with max SL 45.80/47.10 (max).
Targets: [43.35], 42.2, [41.34], 40.10, [39.35].

Below 37.83, as per my positional view, I expect to see 34, 28, 21.

UPDATE 01-OCT-2015

As per my previous analysis, Crude done  45.36, 45.88, High 46.30.

25-Sep-2015: I expect to see reversal between 46-47.2, Can sell with max sl 48.1, if we reach the reversal levels.

 Present Chart and its targets:

Targets: 43.21, 42.34-41.9, 41.2 - 39.65, Now for any Sell SL 48.1

Previous Analysis 22-Sep-2015 to 25-Sep-2015 

http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2015/09/crude-present-view-22-sep-2015.html

WTI/NYMEX Crude View 13-Aug-2015

5:17 pm IST.

CMP 43.11.

THIS VIEW IS NOT YET CONFIRMED. 

IF ANYONE IS IN TRADE PLEASE EXIT.

CMP: 43.39

Crude View Short Term:
As  per the positional view view on 01-Aug-2015, crude reached 43-42.90 from 45.28. But still I expect to see 42.15, 41.65, 41.05, 40.89 positionally.

Now,
If 42.69 holds support, I expect to see upside correction. Upside targets are: 44.55-44.81, 45.75-46, 46.85-47.19.
Retracement levels: 47.19, 50.

If you notice in the above chart, wave 3 extended and made 7 waves. wave 3 of 3 extended 261.8%.

As of now, for any buy max stop loss is 42.60. Below 42.60, I expect my positional downside targets 42.15, 41.65, 41.05, 40.89.


Positional View:
http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2015/08/wti-crude-positional-analysis-01-aug.html
As of now, I still expect the lower targets as per this view. But, now, for short term,  SL 48.65/49.55 is invalid and targets are still valid.

ALL THE BEST.
TRADE AT YOUR RISK. READ DISCLAIMER BEFORE TAKING TRADE DECISION.

WTI Crude Positional Analysis 01-Aug-2015

Hi Friends,
READ DISCLAIMER BEFORE TAKING TRADING DECISION.
ORIGINAL POST
http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2015/08/wti-crude-positional-analysis-01-aug.html

Update 2:

04-Aug-2015
3:26 AM IST
CMP 45.28

Where are we heading now?
As long as Crude resisted by 49.50, we are heading to
03-Aug-2014 targets:
45.32, 44.57. 43.76, 43, 41.63, 41.05, 40.89.

04-Aug-2015 targets:
44.69, 43.90, 42.96, 42.72, 42.15.
Targets: 44.7-44.55, 43.90-43.75, 43-42.90, 42.15, 41.65, 41.05, 40.89
All the best.

Update 1

03-Aug-2015
Crude is ready for lower lows.
CMP 46.39
For Sellers SL: 48.65/49.55 STRICT.
Targets: 45.32, 44.57. 43.76, 43, 41.63, 41.05, 40.89.

01-Aug-2015
Hi Friends,
READ DISCLAIMER BEFORE TAKING TRADING DECISION.

01-Aug-2015
CMP 46.89

As per my monthly chart,
Support: 33.96
Resistance: 147.90

Crude broken multi year support/trend line 3 times (Jan, March, July 2015) and closed below the trend line this month also.

As per my chart, I still expect to see lower lows and expecting 41.55, 36.89, 34.01, 28.01, 24.89, 21$ positionally.



As per my weekly chart,

crude has done nearly 323.6% as wave 3. And made correction of upto 62.57 from the low 43.58.
As per my view, crude made irregular correction and made a new low at 42.42 and risen up.
If you notice, crude made more than 23.6% of wave 3 which is normal correction and started the fall.

And I am still expecting lower low in crude to complete WAVE III (higher tf) at min 41.15$.

As per my Daily chart,

If crude resisted by 62.57$, I expect to see minimum 43.58, 42.42, 41.89(41.66)$.

Daily chart detailed view:

Based on my H4 chart,
we have started the down fall in crude from 62.57 and started as leading diagonal (rare wave formation at wave 1).

If this veiw correct, then I expect to see the break of 46.69 which is the base support as of now.

I have given different wave calculations in the chart, please refer by colors of the wave count.

As per my H1 Chart,
If 61.56 is the start of wave 3, we are still in down trend.
If you notice, wave 3 completed nearly 261.8% and retraced 23.6% as wave 4 at (53.81/53.49).

But as per my wave count wave 5 is not yet completed and expecting another down move minimum 46.47 and it is not limited to.

Alternate view 1:
Based on 30M chart, there is different view as of now.
NOTE: I AM STILL BEARISH and NOT convinced with this up move.
If still the correction not yet completed and 46.69 supports, there is possibility of we will see 49.55/50.18/50.63/51.15/51.29.

As per my 15M chart,
I expect to see crude below 46.69. Break of 46.69 confirms the down move.

Alternate View 2:
check the targets of 30M chart for targets.

Alternate View 3:
Based on 5M chart,
check 30M chart for targets.

Based on 5M chart,
positionally, I still expect to see lower lows below 46.69.

Trade Ideas:
For Sellers SL: 48.65/49.55 STRICT.
For Buyers SL: 46.60

For targets, check the above analyses.

Positional SL 62.65. Targets: 41.55, 36.89.

Long Term Targets: 41.55, 36.89, 34.01, 28.01, 24.89, 21$.

ALL THE BEST.

READ DISCLAIMER BEFORE TAKING TRADING DECISION.



LAST YEAR (2014 AUGUST) ANALYSIS:
WTI/NYMEX: http://freecommodityanalysis.blogspot.in/2014/08/positional-view-mcx-crude-01-aug-2014.html

MCX: http://freecommodityanalysis.blogspot.in/2014/08/positional-view-mcx-crude-01-aug-2014.html



OTHER CHARTS:
Recent history of Crude Ups/Downs
 

 

NYMEX Crude Analysis 30-June-2015

8:29 AM IST
Still the blow view is valid and I stick with this.
http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2015/06/wti-crude-analysis-06-jun-2015.html

WILL BE UPDATING MY POSITIONAL ANALYSIS TOMORROW. STAY TUNED.

 7:28 AM IST
CMP 58.12
Support: 58
Resistance: 60/61.60.

SMALL SL 58$ HIT NOW. THIS VIEW IS INVALID .


As long as crude supported by 58$, I expect to see 59.21 again. Further, I expect to see 59.34, 59.55, 59.80, 60.03, 60.21, 60.50-60.55, 60.73.

As long as Crude resisted by 61.6/62.6, I expect to see 58, 56.50 and more down side.

Trade Ideas:
1. Buy Crude at cmp 58.15, SL 58/57.75 max, TGTs: [59.21], 59.34, 59.55, 59.80, [60.03], 60.21, [60.50-60.55], 60.73.
2. Sell between 60.20-60.90, SL 61.65, TGTs: 59.55, 59.05, 58.55, 58, 57.55, 57.05, 56.50.
3. Sell below 58 with SL 59.30 for  58.55, 58, 57.55, 57.05, 56.50.

All the best.

Natural Gas Positional View 01-Jun-2015

CMP:  2.601.

As long as NG supported by 2.393, I expect to see 2.760, 2.965, 3.121, 3.292, 3.399, 3.570, 3.849, 4.300 positionally.

View valid as long as 2.393 supports.
For any buy max SL 2.390 strict.
Previous Analysis: http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2015/05/long-term-positional-analysis-of.html

WTI Crude Oil Analysis 18-May-2015

18-May-2015 7:31 AM IST
CMP 59.82

As per my analysis, we have completed wave 4 from the bigger picture. Now, as long as crude resisted by 61.83/62.57, I expect to see lower levels in crude.


Trade Idea:
One can Sell Crude below 58.1 or at cmp 59.84 or betweeen 60.1-61.1 with SL 61.9/62.6(max).
Targets: 57.8, 57.4, 55.5, 53, 51, 47, 45.5.

Best Sell Entry: 60.8-61.1

Other targets: 45.2, 37.9, 33.2, 30.2, 22.5
Ref: http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2015/05/nymex-crude-chart-for-ideas-15-may-2015.html


As of now, I could see 3-3 moves. So, as per my view, most likely, we may end this down move in a ending diagonal. But let us wait and watch how the market progresses.


This view is invalid Above 62.6. We may see another up move above 62.6, targeting 65, 68, 71.

Read Disclaimer before Taking decision.

Elliott Wave Points to be considered:

Notes from “Elliott Wave Principle” by Frost & Prechter – 10th Ed. (2005)

• 1. If wave 3 is extended waves 1 and 5 tend toward equality, or a .618 relationship is next most likely.
• 2. Extension:  in impulses, usually just one of waves 1, 3 or 5 extend.  Wave 3 is the most likely to extend.  Rarely, both 3 and 5 extend.  Extensions can occur within extensions. For instance 3 of 3.  Sometimes, at the end of an impulse in which one of the waves extended, there are 9 total waves, and it is difficult to determine which wave extended.  There also can be extensions within extensions.  5 in extension manifests itself as 9, 13, 17, etc.  3 in extension can appear as a 7, 11, 15, etc.  If neither wave 1 or 3 is extended, expect wave 5 to extend, especially if volume is greater in the 5th than the 3rd.
• 3. Wave 5 = to wave 1, or .618 or .382 x the net of waves 1 thru 3.
• 4. Truncation:  when the 5th wave does not reach beyond the 3rd wave.  Occurs most often after a particularly strong 3rd wave.  The wave 5 must still contain the necessary 5 subwaves.  The message truncations send is that there is tremendous pressure to start the new trend.  Expect big moves after truncations.
• 5. An ending contracting diagonal appears at the termination point of larger movements, most often as wave 5, and rarely as wave C.  An expanding diagonal has only occurred only once in the stock market.  Wave 5 often over-shoots, and upon rare occasion, falls short of its resistance trendline.  If it does fall short, the reversal will be more severe.  Ending diagonal triangles indicate exhaustion of a larger pattern that moved too far too fast.  Ending diagonals are usually followed by a quick thrust which retraces to the starting level of the diagonal.

Update: 21-May-2015

As long as 61.83/62.57 resists, I expect to see
57.82, 57.57, 56.32, 55.41, 54.90, 54.67, 52.90, 52.50, 51.93, 51, 50.35, 50.13, 48.35, 47.21, 46.77, 42.42...