10-Jun-2016
CMP 48.94$
Now I am little bit worried about my bearish scenario, but still there is some possibility out there.
For my bearish and bullish scenario, please check:
http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2016/04/crude-positioanl-analysis-24-apr-2016.html
[6/11, 9:35 PM] Arockia: Weekly Analysis:
If crude closes below 48.89, highly bearish.
Early signs:1. Weekly candle is gravestone doji.2. Closed below MA 89.
Confirmation will be in coming week.
As of now, need to watch. No positional trades.
Now res is at 51.65$. Sellers sl max 51.65$ if u want to trade.
My targets: 47.3/45.55/43/41.55 if 51.65$ resists.
Min tgt done at 49.3$. Next small tgts can be 48.55/47.3$.
NOTE: THIS VIEW IS VALID AS LONG AS 51.65$ RESISTS.
[6/11, 9:39 PM] Arockia: Seasonality reversals:May-Jun OR Aug-Sep TO Feb - BEARISH.Jan-Feb To May-Jun OR Aug-Sep - BULLISH.
YEARLY
BUY IN MAR N SELL AT MAY/JUN
SELL IN JUN OR SEP N BUY AT DEC/JAN
Update 16-May-2016
CMP 47.26
2015 Chart:
2016 Chart:
Is history going to repeat again between May-June/July 2016?
24-Apr-2016
CMP 43.71
Supports: 26/9.75$Resistances: 62.57/112.21
Based on monthly chart, still I expect to see lower levels below 26$ positionally.
Bear Scenario:
As long as 35.2 supports, we can see 44.8 first, and further 45.4, 46.4-46.8, 47.5-47.8, 49.2, 50.26.If crude resisted by 50.91$ and any reversal from the above levels, first target 26$ and further targets 21, 19.89, 17.89$.
Bull scenario:
Based on Weekly chart,As long as 35.2 supports, I expect to see 51.55$ first, further we can see 55.45, 57.88, [61.7-64.1], 78.
Based on Daily chart,
As long as 37.60/35.23 supports, I expect to see [44.8], 46.55, 47.55, [49.3-50.35], 56.55.
Seasonality Analysis:
As per my seasonlity analysis, crude is bullish between Feb - Aug and bearish between Aug/Oct - Jan/Feb.
If history repeats, we can see lower low around December 2016.
