CRUDE ANALYSIS 16-Jul-2016

CMP 45.98
Res: 46.9/49.98
Sup: 45/44.69/44.40

As long as 45$ supports, we can see 47.06$ first. Further 47.65-47.84-48, 48.35-48.60.

If crude resisted by 50$ and any reversal from the above levels (i.e., 47.65-47.84-48, 48.35-48.60), we can see 44.4$ again. And further, 43.4/42.55/41.1/40.34/38.89/37.82/36.95/35.29.


IMPORTANT LEVEL TO WATCH: 47.65-48.60.

ABOVE 50$, WE CRUDE WILL RESUME IT'S UPTREND AS WAVE 5 AND WE CAN SEE 51.55/55/57+++.

TRADE IDEAS:
1. BUY WITH SL 45$ for tgts: 47.06, 47.65-47.84-48, 48.35-48.60.
2. SELL WITH SL 50$ between 47.65-48.60 for [44.4], 43.4, 42.55, [41.1], 40.34, 38.89, 37.82, 36.95, [35.29].


MCX
CMP 3088 | Res: 3146/3355 | Sup: 2997/3021

As long as 3021 supports, we can see 3147 again, and further, 3170-3180, 3200-3221, 3250-3270.
If resisted by 3355, and any reversal from the above levels, we will see 2997 again and further, 2967, 2888, 2840, 2762, 2653.

TRADE IDEAS:
1. Buy crude with sl 3021 for 3147, 3170-3180, 3200-3221, 3250-3270.
2. Sell crude with sl 3363 between 3200-3270, for 2997, 2967, 2888, 2840, 2762, 2653.

ABOVE 3355, CRUDE WILL RESUME IT'S UPTREND.





READ DISCLAIMER BEFORE TAKING ANY TRADE DECISION.

NYMEX: Crude Analysis 15-Jun-2016

Is this in play?

24-Apr-2016

Bear Scenario:

As long as 35.2 supports, we can see 44.8 first, and further 45.4, 46.4-46.8, 47.5-47.8, 49.2, 50.26.

If crude resisted by 50.91$ and any reversal from the above levels, first target 26$ and further targets 21, 19.89, 17.89$.


Original Post:

http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2016/04/crude-positioanl-analysis-24-apr-2016.html

15-Jun-2016

CMP: 47.81

If crude resisted by 48.68$, I expect to see 47.42, 46.95, 46.66-46.48, 46.18, 45.77, 45.41 next.

Crude Positional Analysis 24-Apr-2016

10-Jun-2016

CMP 48.94$
Now I am little bit worried about my bearish scenario, but still there is some possibility out there.
For my bearish and bullish scenario, please check:
http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2016/04/crude-positioanl-analysis-24-apr-2016.html

[6/11, 9:35 PM] Arockia: Weekly Analysis:

If crude closes below 48.89, highly bearish.

Early signs:

1. Weekly candle is gravestone doji.

2. Closed below MA 89.

Confirmation will be in coming week.

As of now, need to watch. No positional trades.

Now res is at 51.65$. Sellers sl max 51.65$ if u want to trade.

My targets: 47.3/45.55/43/41.55 if 51.65$ resists.

Min tgt done at 49.3$. Next small tgts can be 48.55/47.3$.

NOTE: THIS VIEW IS VALID AS LONG AS 51.65$ RESISTS.

[6/11, 9:39 PM] Arockia: Seasonality reversals:

May-Jun OR Aug-Sep TO Feb - BEARISH.

Jan-Feb To May-Jun OR Aug-Sep - BULLISH.

YEARLY

BUY IN MAR N SELL AT MAY/JUN

SELL IN JUN OR SEP N BUY AT DEC/JAN

Update 16-May-2016

 CMP 47.26

2015 Chart:

 2016 Chart:

Is history going to repeat again between May-June/July 2016?

 24-Apr-2016

CMP 43.71

Supports: 26/9.75$
Resistances: 62.57/112.21

Based on monthly chart, still I expect to see lower levels below 26$ positionally.

Bear Scenario:

As long as 35.2 supports, we can see 44.8 first, and further 45.4, 46.4-46.8, 47.5-47.8, 49.2, 50.26.
If crude resisted by 50.91$ and any reversal from the above levels, first target 26$ and further targets 21, 19.89, 17.89$.

Bull scenario:

Based on Weekly chart,
As long as 35.2 supports, I expect to see 51.55$ first, further we can see 55.45, 57.88, [61.7-64.1], 78.

Based on Daily chart,
As long as 37.60/35.23 supports, I expect to see [44.8], 46.55, 47.55, [49.3-50.35], 56.55.

Seasonality Analysis:

As per my seasonlity analysis, crude is bullish between Feb - Aug and bearish between Aug/Oct - Jan/Feb.

If history repeats, we can see lower low around December 2016.

Crude Update 20-Apr-2016 - Is the history repeating again?

CMP 41.75$
Res: 42.9
Supports: 37.6/35.23

Crude is trading at important level. Immediate big down moves / lower lows  are in doubt as of now, because, crude has broken important resistance 42.46$ and made high 42.85/42.88.

For any sell strict n max sl must be 42.9$. If break likely scenarios
1. We have started bull move. If this is the case, buy on dips will be the main strategy.
2. We have started bigger correction with resistance at 62.6$. If this is the case, correction may last for longer time.

Seasonal Crude Moves based on the historical charts:
Feb/Mar - Aug/Oct - BULL MOVE.

Reference Charts:
http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2016/01/update-trading-ideas-historical.html

Crude Analysis 01-Apr-2016

View 08-Apr-2016 1:28 PM IST

CMP 38.33

Crude broken important res 38.27, Now I expect to see 39.70, 40.3-40.45, 40.70-40.90, 41.55.

If crude resisted by 42.46$ again fall will start and min target 35.23. Other targets, please check previous views.

View 08-Apr-2016 5:55 AM IST

CMP: 37.58

Supports: 36.67, 35.23

Resistances:  38.27, 42.46

As per the below chart,

Small breakout levels: 38.27/36.67.

Positional breakout levels: 42.46/35.23.

Above 38.27, we may see 39, 39.7, 40.34, 40.8, 41.55. Above 42.46, bull.

As long as 42.46 resists and any break below 35.23$, positionally bearish and we will see 26$ again. refer previous update for downside targets.

So, as of now, aggressive shorts not preferred.

Levels to watch: 39.7 - 40.8 if we reach there.

Chart 1

Chart 2 for some ideas

Thanks.

 

View 07-Apr-2016

Update 8:41 PM IST

 Any break of 35.23, I expect 32.15, 31.60, 28.38, 26.31, 22.42, 20.89, 19.89

 Update 6:03 PM IST

37.34, 37.13, 36.75-36.69, 36.58, 36.41-36.39, 36.18-36.12 (level to watch if we reach here), 35.97-25.95, 35.58, 35.23

CMP 37.82$
Now, If crude resisted by 38.3$, I expect to see 37.55$ again and further 37.11, 36.76, 36.39, 36.12, 36.00-35.95, 35.23. if crude breaks 35.2$ Crude will be very weak.
View valid as long as 38.3$ holds res.

Thanks.

Chart Analysis 07-Apr-2016

 

 

 View 06-Apr-2016

8:30 PM: SL NOT SAFE, MADE HIGH 37.53 till now. Still my view sell on rise only.

I expect this up move to be completed between 37-37.25$.

Below 36.44 bearish and expecting 36.24 first and my other targets 35.02-34.96, 34.25, 33.47, 32.48-32.36, 31.81....

Fresh sell can be initiated at cmp 36.87 or between 37-37.25 with SL 37.37/37.55(max) for the above targets.

Thanks.

 

Update 02-Apr-2016

36.26-36.02, 35.34, 35.02-34.96, 34.25, 33.47, 32.48-32.36, 31.81...

 

01-Apr-2016

CMP 37.71$
Resistances: 39.83/42.46$
Support: 35.94$


Crude is trading at important level between 37.85-37.48.

Now support seen around 37.56.
Small resistance is at 38.35/39.01$.


As long as Crude resisted by 39.83/42.46, I am bearish and expecting [36.76$] first.
Further targets: 36.18-35.94, [35.34-35.26], 34.25, [33.1], 32.44-32.30, [31.8], 30.86, 29.91, 27.88, [26.04].
Below 26$, I expect 21/19.89$.

Thanks,
Read Disclaimer before making any trade decision.

-------------------------------------------------

Previous Analysis and result:

http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2016/03/crude-analysis-19-mar-2016.html

As long as crude resisted by 42.46$, we can see 26$ first positionally and further 21/19.89$.
Targets: 38.57, 36.18, 34.24, 32.32, 30.85, 27.54, 26.04.

As long as long as crude resisted by 42.46$, I expect to see 40.92, 40.16-39.96, 39.21, 38.75-38.44.

Check the above post for Alternative scenario.

Crude Analysis 19-Mar-2016

CMP 41.23
Resistance: 42.46
Support: 35.94

Previous Analyses:

http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2016/02/crude-view-18-feb-2016.html
http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2016/03/crude.html
http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2016/03/crude-analysis-13-mar-2016.html

For previous Charts, please check at the BOTTOM of the Page.

19-Mar-2016

Primary Scenario:

Crude has done 61.8% retracement of wave 3 and more than 200% of wave w[a].

 

As long as crude resisted by 42.46$, we can see 26$ first positionally and further 21/19.89$.
Targets: 38.57, 36.18, 34.24, 32.32, 30.85, 27.54, 26.04.

Alternate Scenario:

If you notice the below charts, we have done the upside target level, which was predicted earlier.

Usually, wave 5 will be 100% of wave 1 or 61.8% of wave 1-3.  As you can see the below chart, we have not done any of these levels, which lies at 43.5/44$.

What may happen, if this up move continues?

Crude can come down to 40/39.2 level and if supported by 36$ again it can shoot up to 43.5/44$ level.

Retracement levels: 40.93/39.97/39.21/38.44/37.86 (level to watch if we reach here), 35.94(100%).

As long as long as crude resisted by 42.46$, I expect to see 40.92, 40.16-39.96, 39.21, 38.75-38.44.

And If crude supported by 35.94$, it can take out 42.46$ and can reach 43.5/44$.

Previous Analyses - Charts:

14-Feb-2016

02-Mar-2016

13-Mar-2016

Crude Analysis 13-Mar-2016

 CMP 38.51

Previous Analysis
http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2016/03/crude.html



Supports: 37.19/36.12$
Resistance: 39$

Min target done at 38.7 as per my previous analysis.

As long as 37.15/36.1$ supports, I expect to see 39.8$ first and further 40.2-40.9$.

Reversal Zone 40-41$.
If Crude resisted by the above zone, again another fall min 26$.

Crude Analysis 02-Mar-2016

CMP 34.07


02-Mar-2016
As long as crude supported by 32.2/30.5, I expect to see 35, [35.4-35.55], 36.05-36.25, 36.5 (done), [37.5-37.6], 37.8, 38.48, 39.28.

Analysis as on 14-Feb-2016

As long as crude supported by 26.04/28.69$, I expect to see 35/35.48, 36/36.46.
http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2016/02/crude-view-18-feb-2016.html

14-Feb-2016 to 02-Mar-2016

Some interesting Charts at W4:

Chart 1 - Move from the low 42.42

Chart 2 - Move from the low 26.04

Chart Comparison:

Does crude going to make it again? If so what is expected from here?

As long as crude supported by 32.2/30.5, I expect to see 35, [35.4-35.55], 36.05-36.25, 36.5, [37.5-37.6], 37.8, 38.48, 39.28.

Let us wait and watch.

22-26/2Feb/2016 Weekly Calls

22/Feb/2016 5:00 AM IST
Positional view: http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2016/02/wti-crude-cmp-32.html

Sell crude at cmp 31.75, SL 32.3/34.3/35 for 31/29.3/26.3/23/21.21/20.55/19.3/17.8/16.8

5:05 AM IST
Positional view:
http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2016/02/gold-analysis-19-feb-2016.html

Sell gold at cmp 1226.xx, SL 1235/1241 ( sl hit on 24th feb) max for 1221 (on 22nd Feb), 1201, 1191, 1161, 1134.

25/Feb/2016 7:08 AM IST

Cmp: 1232.xx

Sell Gold with max SL 1265 for the same targets.

5:08 AM IST
Positional view: http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2016/02/ng-positional-view-19-feb-2016.html

Sell NG at cmp 1.804 SL 1.900/1.980 max  for
[1.746], 1.708,  [1.673], [1.652],  1.564, 1.546, 1.509, [1.491], 1.473.

[2/22, 7:02 AM] Arockia: 22-Feb-2016
Zinc
Cmp 115.85
Res: 118.1/120
As long as zinc supported by 111.7, I expect to see 118.1 first, further (120), 120.9, (122.2), (125.9), 126.5.

[2/22, 7:03 AM] Arockia: Trade idea:
Buy zinc at cmp 115.85 or on dips with max SL 111.7 for 118, 120, 122 (on 22nd Feb), 125.8.

Read Disclaimer before taking any trade decision.
All the best.

WTI Crude, MCX Crude Positional View 21-Feb-2016

WTI Crude

CMP 32.08$
Supports:26.04
Resistances: 50.91/62.57


As per my analysis,

Based on Montyly chart, As long as 50.91/62.57, resists, I expect to see 26.21 (done), 20.49$ (Ultimate target) positionally. Further, we may see extended targets as 16.74.

Based on Daily chart, If crude resisted by 34.19/34.80, I expect to see 26.21$ first and 26.04 again. Further, I expect to see, 20.49, 16.74.

Trade Idea:For any sell, Max and Strict SL 34.25/35$ for min 26.3$ and further targets 20.55, 16.89$.

MCX Crude

CMP: 2202
As long as MCX Crude resisted by 2344, I expect to see 1705, 1658-1631, 1509-1491 and further 999/989 Long term positionally.

Trade Idea:
For any Sell SL 2344
Max and Strict SL 2415

Targets: 1705, 1658-1631, 1509-1491 and further 989

This analysis is for study purpose only.
Read Disclaimer always before taking any trading decision.
All the best.

Crude Analysis 05-Feb-2016

CMP 31.57 6:35 AM IST

31.57
NYEX:/WTI:
Sell Crude at cmp 31.57 between  32.50-33 for 29.4, 25.90, 25.50$.

MCX:
Sell crude at cmp 2168 or between 2199-2245 , wit max sl 2283/2343, for 2027,1899, 1863, 1772, 1672, 1589.

Always read disclaimer before taking any trading decisions.




Thanks,
Arockia.

Crude View 04-Feb-2016 7:21 AM IST

Crude 32.66 7:21 AM IST
As long as crude supported by 27.54, I expect to see minimum 36.59% which 100% of wave w as per the chart. But as per my understanding wave 4 can make 23.6%/38.2 as retracement and reverse.

Still this looks like a a w-x-y pattern and I  expect to see 100% of wave w to complete wave 4 and the final down move to the ultimate target 21$/19.89.
Please comment on my chart and let me know if I am anything wrong, because, I am newbie in analysis.

 
Now from the smaller tf, if crude resisted by 32.84, we may see a tracement towards 32.1-31.7 and from there revere upside with the support of 31.33$.