Crude View 18-Feb-2016

CMP 33.49$

Supports: 28.69/26$
Resistances: 50.91/43.59$.

Analysis as on 14-Feb-2016

As long as crude supported by 26.04/28.69$, I expect to see 35/35/.48, 36/36.46.

I expect to see reversal between 35%-37$.

Analysis as on 18-Feb-2016

Chart as on 18-Feb-2016

Still I expect to another fall below 26% and expecting minimum 21$ positionally.

Crude Positional View 26-Dec-2014

GOOD MORNING FRIENDS!!!
Still I am bearish in Crude and no Change with my call given on 22nd Dec. SELL ON RISE is my strategy.

ADVANCED CALL: Sell Levels: 3625, 3645, 3660-3700 (Best Entry). Strict SL 3735/40. TGT 3570-3565, [3526], 3480-3465, [3437], 3410-3401, [3375-3364], 3320-3309. NEVER HOLD IF SL HIT. ALL THE BEST. TRADE AT YOUR RISK. Take Care Friends. My Ultimate TGT 3210-3170.

NYMEX: SELL ON RISE BETWEEN 57.2-57.5, Stop Loss: 57.7/59.1. TGTs 55.10, 54.5, 53.7, 52.9, My positional targets: 53.2, 51.5, 49.9.


12:57PM
1. Risky Sell cmp 3588, SL 3605, TGT 3572, 3563, 3554.
2. Buy between 3563-3545, Strict SL 3530, TGT 3600, 3625, 3640-3660.
3. Follow Advanced sell with Strict SL 3735/40. All the Best.

Crude Positional Analysis 18-Dec-2014

Good Morning Friends.
Positionally, I am still bearish. Still I expect to see 50.7-50.54/48.00-47.73.

As of now, the resistance is at 77.80/78. As long as 77.80, resists, my strategy will be SELL ON RISE.

NOTE: This view is based on Monthly/Weekly/Daily charts.
Now small resistance is around 63.7/64.4.


As per my analysis, we are in wave 4 of Wave 5 and we have done minimum (normal) correction at 58.94. If this is the end of wave 4 of w5, then my ultimate target would be 46.00-45.34-45.00.

Wave 4 of Wave 5 other retracement levels: 57.35 (done), (made high 58.94) 59.68, 61.56, 63.43, 64.86, 66.11.

For this view to be valid, crude must break 53.60 first.

Trade Idea: Risk takers can enter SELL at cmp 56.90/59.3, with strict SL 57.3/59.
OR BETTER WE CAN WAIT FOR CLEAR VIEW OF THE TREND.


Any move above 69.7, my view will be invalid and I will considering the move as positional long term BIG UP move.

Let us wait and watch how the market unfolds.

NOTE: We are nearing the end of down move/may be we would have completed, so now shorting is highly risky.
This analysis is for learning purpose only. TRADE AT YOUR RISK. Thanks.

MCX Crude Positional View 01-Dec-2014

GM Friends!!!
CMP 4201.
Resistances: 4817/4348

As per my analysis, If crude resisted by 4817/4348, I expect more down side and my downside targets are: 4091, 4006, 3868, 3815, 3571, 3400, 3238...

Crude Next Down side Targets 14-Nov-2014

Good Morning Dear Friends!

My next positional targets: 4570-4540, 4460-[4442]-4430, 4350-4322-4300. Resistances 4920/5093. Positional traders can sell on rise for my targets.

HAVE A PROFITABLE DAY!!!

POSITIONAL VIEW OF CRUDE 12-Nov-2014

POSITIONAL VIEW OF CRUDE 12-Nov-2014: If crude resisted by 4920, 5093, I expect big fall in crude. Positionally  I expect 4691, 4597, 4540, 4442, 4367, 4277. My Ultimate targets: 4691, 4540, 4442, 4227. Positional Sell can be initiated on rise with Strict SL 4930/5100.

MCX Crude Positional View (long term) 25-Oct-2014

4950-4940, 4920-4900, 4826, 4770, 4705. ALL TGT DONE.

Positional Down Move Views Given Previously.

01-Aug-2014
Long term positional targets are: 5640, 5248, 5294, 5078.
http://freecommodityanalysis.blogspot.in/2014/08/positional-view-mcx-crude-01-aug-2014.html

21-Sep-2014
Targets on the down side are: 5433, 5136, 4824, 4707, 4394, 4321.
http://freecommodityanalysis.blogspot.in/2014/09/mcx-crude-view-21-sep-2014.html

PRESENT POSITIONAL VIEW (LONG TERM) 25-OCT-2014
CMP 4972.

As per my Monthly chart, 50% retracement (blue line) of crude lies at 4705.

Further retracement levels are: 4705, 3983, 3440, 1626(100%).
Blue lines - retracement levels
Red/orange lines, wave 3 targets

As long 6548/6499 restricts, more down is expected.
Targets variation 1: 4826, 4705, 4405, 4322, 3983, 3591, 3500, 3440 (level to watch if we reach here), 3086.

Targets variation 2: 4560-4548-4530, 4330-4315-4300, 4250-4232-4210, 3970-3953-3930(level to be watched, if we reach here).



My ultimate targets: 4350-4310, 3970-3930, 3620-3580.

As per my view, we will see some correction (wave 4 - normally 23.6%-38.2%) after next down move.


ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO:
If 4949 is the end of down move, we can expect wave 4 of wave 3 and the retracement levels are: 5170, 5306.

If so, upside targets are: 5170, 5224, 5306, 5329, 5394. Minimum tgt 5224. Strict SL 4940.

Will update after the confirmation on the trend on Monday.

As of now,
Sellers SL 5120/5200. TGTs: 4950-4940, 4920-4900, 4826, 4770, 4705.
Buyers SL 4940. TGTs: 5170, 5224, 5306, 5329, 5394.

NOTE: POSITIONALLY, STILL I AM BEARISH AND MY STRATEGY IS SELL ON RISE ONLY. POSITIONAL RESISTANCE 5884.

NYMEX CRUDE POSITIONAL VIEW 25-OCT-2014

Based on Weekly Chart,
If 94.90 resists, minimum downside targets are: 78.35, 73.5.

If crude resisted by 82.36/84.79, I expect big down fall, targetting 79.80, 77.7, 74.9.

 

Positionally, I am still bearish and expecting 78.4, 73.5, 65/57.5/53.

I expect minimum 78.5, 74.


Other targets:
80.05, 79.80, 78.34, 77.7, 77.2, 77.5, 74.80, 73.8.



Resistances : 82.36/84.79/88.20/91.80/94.89.

VIEW VALID AS LONG AS 94.89 HOLDS RESISTANCE.


What will happen if 84.79 is not the end of correction?
Crude will take support at 79.80, and then make an upside move towards, 84.79, 85.80-86, 86.6, 87.21, 87.7-88.3.

But as per my view the minimum correction completed at 84.79.

 

For any Sell Strict SL 82.5/85. TGTs: 79.80, 78.5, 74. Small/Other targets check above.

Crude Positional view of Down Move 18-Oct-2014

AS PER MY ANALYSIS GIVEN ON 01-AUGUST-2014, Crude done most of my targets from
http://freecommodityanalysis.blogspot.in/2014/08/nymex-crude-positional-down-move-view.html


Support: 33.19
Resistance: 114.82

Retracement Levels: 83.79, 74.25, 64.50, 57.27(70.7), 50.84, 33.19 (100%).

Now support Levels: 77.26, 74.95.
Any break of the above support levels, more fall in crude expected.

As per my calculations/views, if
74.94 (wave A)
112.21 (wave B) then,

Wave C targets are: 74.15, 72.22, 65.63, 64.50, 59.84, 57.27-57.11 (70.7%), 50.50.

For this view to be valid, 74.94 has to broken first.

Resistance: 107.67.
As crude broken the support 91.24, I expect the down side targets:
86.73, 86.29, 83.25, 81.83 (crude done tgts up this. Made low 79.80), 78.75, 78.31, 74.

As per my Analysis, If 94.89 is the start of wave 5, crude done minimum down side targets at 86.31, 84.28.

Based on 1H tf, If 84.79 is start of wave 5 of 5, then down side targets are 79.80, 78.25, 77.26, 75.50 n more.

Based on 15m tf,
Resistances: 84.42, 84.79.

If 84.42, 84.79 resists, I expect to see 81.95-81.70, 81.40.81.30, 81, 80.75, 80.4, 79.8. Any move below 79.80, big down fall expected.
Check my monthly analysis for targets below 79.80.

Will update with POSSIBLE UP MOVE (if 79.80 is the end of move) view later.