MCX Crude Positional View (long term) 25-Oct-2014

4950-4940, 4920-4900, 4826, 4770, 4705. ALL TGT DONE.

Positional Down Move Views Given Previously.

01-Aug-2014
Long term positional targets are: 5640, 5248, 5294, 5078.
http://freecommodityanalysis.blogspot.in/2014/08/positional-view-mcx-crude-01-aug-2014.html

21-Sep-2014
Targets on the down side are: 5433, 5136, 4824, 4707, 4394, 4321.
http://freecommodityanalysis.blogspot.in/2014/09/mcx-crude-view-21-sep-2014.html

PRESENT POSITIONAL VIEW (LONG TERM) 25-OCT-2014
CMP 4972.

As per my Monthly chart, 50% retracement (blue line) of crude lies at 4705.

Further retracement levels are: 4705, 3983, 3440, 1626(100%).
Blue lines - retracement levels
Red/orange lines, wave 3 targets

As long 6548/6499 restricts, more down is expected.
Targets variation 1: 4826, 4705, 4405, 4322, 3983, 3591, 3500, 3440 (level to watch if we reach here), 3086.

Targets variation 2: 4560-4548-4530, 4330-4315-4300, 4250-4232-4210, 3970-3953-3930(level to be watched, if we reach here).



My ultimate targets: 4350-4310, 3970-3930, 3620-3580.

As per my view, we will see some correction (wave 4 - normally 23.6%-38.2%) after next down move.


ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO:
If 4949 is the end of down move, we can expect wave 4 of wave 3 and the retracement levels are: 5170, 5306.

If so, upside targets are: 5170, 5224, 5306, 5329, 5394. Minimum tgt 5224. Strict SL 4940.

Will update after the confirmation on the trend on Monday.

As of now,
Sellers SL 5120/5200. TGTs: 4950-4940, 4920-4900, 4826, 4770, 4705.
Buyers SL 4940. TGTs: 5170, 5224, 5306, 5329, 5394.

NOTE: POSITIONALLY, STILL I AM BEARISH AND MY STRATEGY IS SELL ON RISE ONLY. POSITIONAL RESISTANCE 5884.