Crude Positional Views Update (given on 01-Dec-2014)

NYMEX
CMP 65.83
My ideal targets: 64.7-[64.48]-64.3, 63.3-[63.11]-63.00, 58.7-[58.44]-58.2, 57.5-[57.34]-[57.2]-57.00, 54-[53.88]-53.6, 50.89, 50.48, 47.32, 38.95.

65.83 -----> 53.6


http://freecommodityanalysis.blogspot.in/2014/12/nymex-crude-view-01-dec-2014.html



MCX
CMP 4201.
As per my analysis, If crude resisted by 4817/4348, I expect more down side and my downside targets are: 4091, 4006, 3868, 3815, 3571, 3400, 3238...

4201 -----> 3400

http://freecommodityanalysis.blogspot.in/2014/12/mcx-crude-positional-view-01-dec-2014.html

Advanced Call for Monday posted on 27-Dec-2014

Good Evening Friends!
Advanced Call 3 for next Week:
SELL ON RISE is still my strategy.

Sell Crude on every rise or at CMP 3547.
Strict SL: 3635/3750/3740.
TGTs: 3505, 3437, 3290-3274, 3170-3161, 2999-2990.

ALL THE BEST.

Crude Positional View 26-Dec-2014

GOOD MORNING FRIENDS!!!
Still I am bearish in Crude and no Change with my call given on 22nd Dec. SELL ON RISE is my strategy.

ADVANCED CALL: Sell Levels: 3625, 3645, 3660-3700 (Best Entry). Strict SL 3735/40. TGT 3570-3565, [3526], 3480-3465, [3437], 3410-3401, [3375-3364], 3320-3309. NEVER HOLD IF SL HIT. ALL THE BEST. TRADE AT YOUR RISK. Take Care Friends. My Ultimate TGT 3210-3170.

NYMEX: SELL ON RISE BETWEEN 57.2-57.5, Stop Loss: 57.7/59.1. TGTs 55.10, 54.5, 53.7, 52.9, My positional targets: 53.2, 51.5, 49.9.


12:57PM
1. Risky Sell cmp 3588, SL 3605, TGT 3572, 3563, 3554.
2. Buy between 3563-3545, Strict SL 3530, TGT 3600, 3625, 3640-3660.
3. Follow Advanced sell with Strict SL 3735/40. All the Best.

Positional Analysis of Crude 24-Dec-2014

mcx raj Dec 24, 2014 03:40AM GMT

POSITIONAL ANALYSIS OF CRUDE 24-Dec-2014. NYMEX Resistances: 59.02/58.51, Supports: 53.60/54.28/55.08. Above 59.10, I expect 60.3, 62.3, 64.51, 67.7.. Below 53.60, I expect 52.7/50.6/48.5/45.2.. From the Hourly Chart, if you notice Triangle is formed. I expect big move on any side breakout.. Crude not ble to make new highs/new lows and it is trading in a range.. Sellers Stop must be 59.2. Buyers Stop must be 53.5.

mcx raj Dec 24, 2014 03:41AM GMT

MCX. Resistance: 3730, Support: 3437. Above 3730 I expect, 3887/3995/4166. Below 3437 I expect, 3274/3161/2995. Sellers Stop 3735/40. Buyers Stop 3420.. Take Care Friends.

mcx raj Dec 24, 2014 03:44AM GMT

CMP 56.7/3609

Today's Calls 22-Dec-2014

Sell NYMEX crude at cmp 57.73, Strict SL 58.1/58.5. TGT 57, 56.3, 55.9, 55.3.

10:30 AM
High Risk Sell cmp 3692, Strict SL 3705/3720, TGT 3675, 3665, 3655.

11:08 AM
Sell copper at cmp 409.2 or on Rise, Strict SL 410.6/411, TGT 407, 405, 403.

Some DO's and DON'Ts

Some DO's and DON'Ts
1. DON'T trade without STOP LOSS.
2. DON'T OVERTRADE. By doing so, you are increasing your RISK.
3. DON'T try to recover from loss immediately. If you do so, there is a possiblility of loosing more and more or may be full of your capital.

1. Fix your Profit/Loss per day (3k/5k/10k/20k/50k etc... based on your capital). Don't trade if your limit reached (profit or loss)
2. Try to trade with full margin instead of going for exposure. More the EXPOSURE More the PAIN.
3. If you follow some advisor, always follow the same person (Don't shift advisor if you face losses. If you do so, you may face the same with the new advisor).
4. Trading is not an one day event, It will be there tomorrow/next week/next month/next year/ next decade/next millenium ... (Slow and Steady win's the race).
5. Whenever possible, try to modify your stop loss (TSL - Trailing Stop Loss)
6. Try to learn while you trading/following some advisor. Because advisors will not come along with you full time over a period of time.
7. Loosing money in the market is very easy BUT earning is difficult and it is slow process.

MCX Lead Positional Analysis 19-Dec-2014

CMP 116.40
Swing Low: 43
Swing High: 155.30

As per my monthly chart, retracement levels are: 128.75 (done), 112.5, 99.2, 85.9, 76, 67.1, 43(100%).

Based on my Weekly Chart, If Lead resisted by 139.55/155.30, I expect big fall in lead and
Downside targets are: 113.7, 108.85, [105.95], [100.8], 99.35, 98.1, 93.15, [85.3].

Based on my Daily Chart, If Lead resisted by 128.55/139.55, I expect,
Downside targets are: 115.80 (done), 113.10, 109.1, 108.5, 105.6, 101.8, 97.2.
Trade Idea: Sell lead on rise with strict SL 128.6 for the above targets.

Based on my Hourly Chart, If Lead resisted by 125.55, I expect minimum downside 118.85.
As of now, Lead done 3rd wave at 115.85 and it is in correction now. If so,
Retracement Levels are: 118.1, 119.5, 120.7, 121.8, 122.65, 123.45, 125.55 (100%).
Normally, wave 4 will make 23.6% retracement and lead made high 118.05 (118.1 (23.6%)).

Any  move below 115.85, confirms next down move (wave 5).

Downside target is: 113.3.
Other targets: 112, 110.5, 109.1.


Trade Idea:
As per my analysis,
Sellers SL 118.3/125.7/128.5
Buyers Strict SL: 115.7.

1. Buy Lead at CMP 116.40 with Strict SL 115.7 for 118, 119.4, 120.2, 121.6.
2. Sell On Rise between 120-123 with Strict SL 125.7 for 116, n for my positional targets.
3. If Lead moves below 115.8 before move above 118.1,  Sell below 115.8 with strict SL at 118.2 for my positional targets.

Crude Positional Analysis 18-Dec-2014

Good Morning Friends.
Positionally, I am still bearish. Still I expect to see 50.7-50.54/48.00-47.73.

As of now, the resistance is at 77.80/78. As long as 77.80, resists, my strategy will be SELL ON RISE.

NOTE: This view is based on Monthly/Weekly/Daily charts.
Now small resistance is around 63.7/64.4.


As per my analysis, we are in wave 4 of Wave 5 and we have done minimum (normal) correction at 58.94. If this is the end of wave 4 of w5, then my ultimate target would be 46.00-45.34-45.00.

Wave 4 of Wave 5 other retracement levels: 57.35 (done), (made high 58.94) 59.68, 61.56, 63.43, 64.86, 66.11.

For this view to be valid, crude must break 53.60 first.

Trade Idea: Risk takers can enter SELL at cmp 56.90/59.3, with strict SL 57.3/59.
OR BETTER WE CAN WAIT FOR CLEAR VIEW OF THE TREND.


Any move above 69.7, my view will be invalid and I will considering the move as positional long term BIG UP move.

Let us wait and watch how the market unfolds.

NOTE: We are nearing the end of down move/may be we would have completed, so now shorting is highly risky.
This analysis is for learning purpose only. TRADE AT YOUR RISK. Thanks.

Today's Calls 17-Dec-2014

6:25 AM
High Risk Sell Crude at cmp 55.32, SL 55.7/56.65/57.2, TGT: 54.3, 53.75, 53, 52.8 (Based on Current Month Contract).

Next Contract CMP 55.68.

Morning View: If crude resisted by 3610/3665, I expect 3527, 3511, 3485, 3469, 3453, 3427. Sellers SL 3615/3670.

Today's calls 16-Dec-2014

HIGH RISK: Sell crude at Cmp 3537 or on rise between 3545-3560, with strict SL 3615 for 3495, 3465, 3410. High risk call. Don't hold if sl hit. Best of luck

Today's Calls 15-Dec-2014

Good Morning Friends!!! Have a Profitable Day n Week!!!

MORNING VIEW: Today`s Strategy:

CRUDE
Sell at cmp 3635 or on Rise with Strict stop loss 3730. Resistances: 3690/3730/3780/3860. Targets: 3580-3570, 3534, 3464, 3409, 3273.

Nickel Long Term Positional View 14-Dec-2014

Nickel Analysis 14-Dec-2014
Swing High: 2247
Swing Low: 453

Retracement Levels: 857, 1137 (done), 1350, 1561, 1719, 1862, 2247 (100%).

If Nickel Supported by 453, 787, I expect 1660.
If Nickel Supported by 787 upside targets are: 1279, 1394, 1583, 1660.
If Nickel supported by 899, upside targets are: 1279, 1394, 1506, 1578, 1695.

Nickel High Level Chart

Short Term:

If crude supported by 1010.60, I expect 1066, 1073, 1093-1100, 1113.
Breakout Levels: 1010/1067.


Based on My Weekly Chart,
Retracement Levels: 875, 1137 (done), 1350, 1561, 1719, 1862.

If Nickel supported by 453, 787, 899, I expect 1279 and 1332 first.
My Targets are: 1279, 1328-1332, 1407, 1539, 1664-1666, 1871-1875, 1998, 2204.

If Nickel supported by 899, I expect 1279, 1392-1394, 1466, 1506, 1578-1583, 1695.


My Targets are: 1279, 1328-1332, 1392-1394, 1407, 1466, 1506, 1578-1583, 1664-1666, 1695, 1790, 1871-1875, 1998, 2204.
My Ultimate targets are: 1279, 1580, 1690, 1870, 2204.



Trade Idea:
Buy Nickel on dips with Strict SL 1009. Below 1009, my short term view will be changed.

TRADE AT YOUR RISK.

MCX Crude Positional View 13-Dec-2014

CMP 3635.
Resistance: 3981/4302/4817.

Based on My Weekly Chart, Next Long Term positional targets are: 3567, [[ 3530-3501-3471 (important level to watch)]] , 3273, 3148, [3120-3095-3048], [2998, 2954], 2877, 2795, [2637], 2276, 2172.

Copper Postional View 11-Dec-2014

CMP 404.60
Resistances:  440/413.

As long as Copper resisted by 440/513, I expect big down move in Copper.
My positional targets: 392, 364, 346, 319, 291, 271, 245.

If Copper supported by 389, then retracement levels are: 401.5 (done), 408, 414, 420, 424, 428.

If Copper supported by 389/397/402, I expect up move.

Trade Idea: Buy Copper with Strict SL 402/397.
Targets: 406.5, 408.5, [410.5], 413.4, [414.5], 417.5, 418.7, 420.3, [421.3], 424, [425.4].


If Copper resisted by 440, and any reversal from the above retracement levels, I expect 390 first.
My other targets are: 379, 372, 360.

TRADE AT YOUR RISK! HAPPY TRADING!!!

NYMEX Crude Positional View 09-Dec-2014

CMP: 62.75.
Nymex Crude Resistances: 77.80/69.53.
As long as the above levels resist, my strategy is SELL ON RISE with strict stop loss at 70.

Next targets: 61.00-[60.84]-60.44-60, 58.7-[58.43]-58.2, 55.70-[55.43-55.13]-55.00, 52.3-[52.12]-52.00, 50.3-[50.12-49.72]-49.5, 46.9-[46.72-46.42]-46.3.

I will be reanalysing my chart if crude moves above 69.53. As long as 69.53 resists, this view is VALID.


TRADE AT YOUR RISK.

NYMEX Crude view 06-Dec-2014

CMP: 65.69
Resistance: 77.80/69.53/68.20

CRUDE MADE LOW 64.65. Now, the SHORT TRADE STOPPED. I expect some bounce back. So, better we can wait for clear view . But my positional view is still same on the SELL SIDE. But waiting for better entry.

I am waiting for clear view whether we are in wave 5 (3) DOWN or Wave c(4) UP. So, TRADE STOPPED.

STILL THIS VIEW IS VALID n WORKED WELL. BUT I SUPPOSE WE ARE NEARING BOTTOM OF WAVE 5 of WAVE 3. TRADE CAREFULLY. ENJOY SELLERS.



Variation 1
If crude resisted by 77.80, I expect to see 64.44 again. And more on the downside I expect, 63.05, 58.33, 57.53, 57.13, 53.77.

Variation 2
If crude resisted by 77.80, I expect 60.73, 60.23, 56.73.

Based on the above analyses, resistance is at 77.80. As long as 77.80 resists, Positionally, I expect
63.05, 60.73, 60.23, 58.33, 57.53, 57.13, 56.73, 53.77.


Based on my Hourly chart, If Crude resisted by 68.2, I expect to see 65.00, 63.80, 63.63, 62.43, 60.81.

As per this analysis, one can go short with strict stop at 68.5/70.00.

My ultimate targets on the downside are:
65.10-64.90, 63.85-63.60, 63.15-63.00, 62.6-62.40, 61-60.75.

My Positional Targets:
63.15-63.00, 58.7-58.3, 57.25-57.10, 54-53.70.

TRADE AT YOUR RISK. WATCH OR TRADE.

MCX Crude Positional View 01-Dec-2014

GM Friends!!!
CMP 4201.
Resistances: 4817/4348

As per my analysis, If crude resisted by 4817/4348, I expect more down side and my downside targets are: 4091, 4006, 3868, 3815, 3571, 3400, 3238...

NYMEX CRUDE View 01-Dec-2014

CMP 65.83
Resistance: 77.80

As per my view, we have started wave 5 at 77.80 from the bigger picture.
As usual, my strategy still SELL ON RISE.

I expect the following levels in Crude.
Retracement Levels: [64.48], 57.34, 50.89, 33.19 (100%).
As per wave 1: 57.20.
As per wave 0-3: 63.11, 58.44, 57.3, [53.88], 50.48, 47.32, 38.95.

My ideal targets: 64.7-[64.48]-64.3, 63.3-[63.11]-63.00, 58.7-[58.44]-58.2, 57.5-[57.34]-[57.2]-57.00, 54-[53.88]-53.6, 50.89, 50.48, 47.32, 38.95.


Crude is now at important retracement level 61.8% (around 64.5). If crude resisted by 77.80/78 I expect the following downside targets 63.3-63.11, 58.7-58.44, 57.6-57.34, 54.10-53.88, 50.9-50.48, 47.6-47.32.