I would like to share my view on Crude down fall from 107.67$ to 42.42$.
Often
there is a debate on why a Commodity /Stock/Currency moves up or moves
down. It moves based on Fundamental News or it is technically
weak/strong.
Fundamental Supporters, will say it is because of fundamental news. Technical Supporters, will say it is because of technical.
In
my perspective both are important, technical analysis works best based
on fundamental news. I am supporter of technical analysis and which is
fueled by fundamental news.
I
started my analysis based on Elliott Wave from late 2013. I was highly
bullish and expected up move and started projecting my targets for crude
on the upside.
29-June-2014
Positional Up move if 105 holds support:
If
crude supported by 105, upside targets are: 107.5-107.3, 108-108.3,
108.5-108.7, 109-109.3, 109.5-109.7, 110.3-110.6, 112-112.3,
112.5-112.7, 113.7-113.9.
http://freecommodityanalysis.blogspot.in/2014/06/nymex-crude-view-29-june-2014.html
My Positional View changed once, crude broken it's base support of 97$, and I became bearish.
Here below, I have given my charts and views which was given in my blog, chronologically.
01-Aug-2014
CMP 97.83
As Crude broken all its supports (99.7, 98.5, 97Now I am fully bearish with Crude.
Based on My chart, I expect 96.2, 92, 88, 85, 81 Long Term Positional.
http://freecommodityanalysis.blogspot.in/2014/08/nymex-crude-positional-down-move-view.html
15-Sep-2014
If crude restricted by 93.7, 96, I expect more fall in Crude.
Sell on rise is the strategy with SL 93.75 for targets: [[90.5-90.4-90.3]], 89.75, 88.5, [[87.5]], 86.8.
http://freecommodityanalysis.blogspot.in/2014/09/nymex-crude-positional-view-15-sep-2014.html
01-Nov-2014
CMP 80.71
Based on my Monthly/Weekly chart, If crude resisted by 114.82, 112.21, I expect minimum 75, 72.5.
Other targets: 75.25-74.95, 72.75-72.35, 66-65.65, 63.3-63.05, 60-59.75, 57.5-57.15, 50-50.45, 48.25-47.9.
HIGH LEVEL
http://freecommodityanalysis.blogspot.in/2014/11/nymex-crude-positional-analysis-01-nov.html
01-Dec-2014
Crude
is now at important retracement level 61.8% (around 64.5). If crude
resisted by 77.80/78 I expect the following downside targets 63.3-63.11,
58.7-58.44, 57.6-57.34, 54.10-53.88, 50.9-50.48, 47.6-47.32.
http://freecommodityanalysis.blogspot.in/2014/12/nymex-crude-view-01-dec-2014.html
News that supported up move and down move of Crude:
All news items are taken from investing.com
Bearish News | Bullish News |
22.06.2014
U.S. oil futures turn lower ahead of API supply report
By Investing.com - Jul 22, 2014
Crude dips on U.S. supply uncertainty
By Investing.com - Jul 22, 2014
NYMEX crude oil prices dip in Asia after API data shows mild stocks drop
By Investing.com - Jul 22, 2014
U.S. oil futures decline ahead of weekly supply data
By Investing.com - Jul 23, 2014
24.07.2014
Crude oil futures decline despite upbeat China PMI data
By Investing.com - Jul 24, 2014
WTI oil futures modestly lower after mixed U.S. data
By Investing.com - Jul 24, 2014
25.07.2014
Crude oil edges lower, U.S. home sales still weigh
By Investing.com - Jul 25, 2014
Crude futures edge lower in choppy trading, U.S. data support
By Investing.com - Jul 25, 2014
30.09.2014
U.S. oil hits session low after disappointing U.S. confidence data
By Investing.com - Sep 30, 2014
Crude hammered lower as quarter ends amid major supply concerns
By Investing.com - Sep 30, 2014
Oil Prices Tumble On High Dollar
By International Business Times - Sep 30, 2014
NYMEX crude falls in early Asia despite API data mild drop in supplies
By Investing.com - Sep 30, 2014
24.11.2014
Crude oil futures slump with all eyes on OPEC meeting
By Investing.com - Nov 24, 2014
NYMEX crude edges lower in Asia with OPEC meeting in focus
By Investing.com - Nov 24, 2014
01.12-2014
Oil futures extend plunge to lowest since 2009 on OPEC inaction
By Investing.com - Dec 01, 2014
04.12.2014
Oil futures tumble to session lows on Saudi price cut
By Investing.com - Dec 04, 2014
Crude drops as Saudi Arabia trims export prices
By Investing.com - Dec 04, 2014
14.12.2015
NYMEX crude falls in Asia, weekend OPEC comments brushed off
By Investing.com - Dec 14, 2014
15.12.2015
Oil hits five-year low before rallying above $62
By Reuters - Dec 15, 2014
02.01.2015
Oil declines in thin, volatile trading
By Reuters - Jan 02, 2015
14.01.2015
Oil trades near 6-year low amid global growth concerns
By Investing.com - Jan 14, 2015
30.01.2015
Oil rises, but set for record run of monthly falls
By Reuters - Jan 30, 2015
Crude oil rallies over 1% but supply glut worries still weigh
By Investing.com - Jan 30, 2015
02.02.2015
Crude oil futures drop 3% as global growth concerns weigh
By Investing.com - Feb 02, 2015
Crude oil turns lower in choppy trade after ISM disappoints
By Investing.com - Feb 02, 2015
17.02.2015
Crude oil futures erase gains to trade down 3% in choppy trade
By Investing.com - Feb 17, 2015
18.02.2015
Oil futures decline amid profit-taking ahead of U.S. supply report
By Investing.com - Feb 18, 2015
Cheaper crude oil subdues U.S. producer inflation; housing starts fall
By Reuters - Feb 18, 2015
Oil's losses deepen; WTI drops as much as 3% ahead of API data
By Investing.com - Feb 18, 2015
10.03.2015
Brent oil futures fall below $58 as dollar hits 11-year high
By Investing.com - Mar 10, 2015
Dollar rally sinks oil; Brent down more than U.S. crude
By Reuters - Mar 10, 2015
Crude oil prices fall sharply, as U.S. Dollar reaches 12-year high
By Investing.com - Mar 10, 2015
23.02.2015
NYMEX crude falls in early Asia with focus on heavy supplies
By Investing.com - Apr 23, 2015
23.02.2015
Oil futures slip lower on rising U.S. stockpiles
By Investing.com - Apr 23, 2015 | 16.07.2014
Crude oil rebounds after upbeat China GDP data, U.S. supply data ahead
By Investing.com - Jul 16, 2014
WTI oil futures extend gains after bullish U.S. supply report
By Investing.com - Jul 16, 2014
Crude shoots up as U.S. stockpiles take a dive
By Investing.com - Jul 16, 2014
NYMEX crude oil carries prices gains into Asia after bullish stocks data
By Investing.com - Jul 16, 2014
23.09.2014
Crude oil futures edge higher on upbeat Chinese data
By Investing.com - Sep 23, 2014
16.10.2014
NYMEX crude oil gains in early Asia on rebound off ample U.S. supplies
By Investing.com - Oct 16, 2014
17.10.2014
Crude oil rallies over 1% but supply data still weighs
By Investing.com - Oct 17, 2014
01.12.2014
Oil futures erase losses to trade up 2% on weaker dollar
By Investing.com - Dec 01, 2014
17.12.2014
Oil surges in about-face as some bet sub-$60 Brent won't last
By Reuters - Dec 17, 2014
14.01.2015
Oil surges 5 percent on options expiry; bounce seen fleeting
By Reuters - Jan 14, 2015
02.02.2014
Oil up in skittish trade; stocks, refinery strike limit gains
By Reuters - Feb 02, 2015
03.02.2015
Oil jumps as dollar plunges, up nearly 20 percent in four days
By Reuters - Feb 03, 2015
17.02.2015
Oil futures extend gains on bullish momentum
By Investing.com - Feb 17, 2015
25.03.2015
NYMEX crude gains in Asia as API data shows drop in distillate, gasoline
By Investing.com - Mar 24, 2015
15.04.2015
NYMEX crude up in Asia after China Q1 data flurry, GDP supports
By Investing.com - Apr 15, 2015
WTI oil futures rally above $54 ahead of weekly inventory data
By Investing.com - Apr 15, 2015
WTI oil futures rally to 4-month high after bullish supply data
By Investing.com - Apr 15, 2015
22.04.2015
NYMEX crude gains in early Asia as investors watch Yemen fighting
By Investing.com - Apr 22, 2015 |
All news items are taken from investing.com
Present View 25-Apr-2015
As
per my analysis, we are in wave 4 and I expect to see minimum of 58.63.
Crude almost done this target made high of 58.39 on Thursday
(23-Apr-2015). Still I expect to see another up move before a big fall,
which will be wave 5 as per my analysis minimum targeting 45/43/38$.
For detailed analysis and updates you can check
freecommodityanalysis.blogspot.in,
marketreserachanalysis.blogspot.in
Conclusion - Fundamental or Technical?
In
Market research, both are essential, and must go together to achieve
the target. Technical analyst can give bigger targets but, these targets
can only be reached if fundamental news supports. Else, technical
analysis will fail.
Fundamental news, can give good move, but
where the move will end? Only technical analysis can give the targets,
where one can safely book the profits.
Technical Analysis gives
targets, but
Fundamental News
drives the market to reach the target.
But, sometimes, Technical wins over fundamental and fundamental wins over technical.