Market Research Analysis: NYMEX Crude Down Move - Fundamental Or Technical

I would like to share my view on Crude down fall from 107.67$ to 42.42$.
Often there is a debate on why a Commodity /Stock/Currency moves up or moves down. It moves based on Fundamental News or it is technically weak/strong.
Fundamental Supporters, will say it is because of fundamental news. Technical Supporters, will say it is because of technical.

In my perspective both are important, technical analysis works best based on fundamental news. I am supporter of technical analysis and which is fueled by fundamental news.

I started my analysis based on Elliott Wave from late 2013. I was highly bullish and expected up move and started projecting my targets for crude on the upside.

29-June-2014

Positional Up move if 105 holds support:
If crude supported by 105, upside targets are: 107.5-107.3, 108-108.3, 108.5-108.7, 109-109.3, 109.5-109.7, 110.3-110.6, 112-112.3, 112.5-112.7, 113.7-113.9.

http://freecommodityanalysis.blogspot.in/2014/06/nymex-crude-view-29-june-2014.html
My Positional View changed once, crude broken it's base support of 97$, and I became bearish.
Here below, I have given my charts and views which was given in my blog, chronologically.

01-Aug-2014

CMP 97.83
As Crude broken all its supports (99.7, 98.5, 97Now I am fully bearish with Crude.
Based on My chart, I expect 96.2, 92, 88, 85, 81 Long Term Positional.

http://freecommodityanalysis.blogspot.in/2014/08/nymex-crude-positional-down-move-view.html

15-Sep-2014

If crude restricted by 93.7, 96, I expect more fall in Crude.
Sell on rise is the strategy with SL 93.75 for targets: [[90.5-90.4-90.3]], 89.75, 88.5, [[87.5]], 86.8.

http://freecommodityanalysis.blogspot.in/2014/09/nymex-crude-positional-view-15-sep-2014.html

01-Nov-2014

CMP 80.71
Based on my Monthly/Weekly chart, If crude resisted by 114.82, 112.21, I expect minimum 75, 72.5.
Other targets: 75.25-74.95, 72.75-72.35, 66-65.65, 63.3-63.05, 60-59.75, 57.5-57.15, 50-50.45, 48.25-47.9.
HIGH LEVEL

http://freecommodityanalysis.blogspot.in/2014/11/nymex-crude-positional-analysis-01-nov.html

01-Dec-2014

Crude is now at important retracement level 61.8% (around 64.5). If crude resisted by 77.80/78 I expect the following downside targets 63.3-63.11, 58.7-58.44, 57.6-57.34, 54.10-53.88, 50.9-50.48, 47.6-47.32.

http://freecommodityanalysis.blogspot.in/2014/12/nymex-crude-view-01-dec-2014.html

News that supported up move and down move of Crude:

All news items are taken from investing.com

Bearish News

Bullish News

All news items are taken from investing.com

Present View 25-Apr-2015

As per my analysis, we are in wave 4 and I expect to see minimum of 58.63. Crude almost done this target made high of 58.39 on Thursday (23-Apr-2015). Still I expect to see another up move before a big fall, which will be wave 5 as per my analysis minimum targeting 45/43/38$.
For detailed analysis and updates you can check freecommodityanalysis.blogspot.in, marketreserachanalysis.blogspot.in

Conclusion - Fundamental or Technical?

In Market research, both are essential, and must go together to achieve the target. Technical analyst can give bigger targets but, these targets can only be reached if fundamental news supports. Else, technical analysis will fail.
Fundamental news, can give good move, but where the move will end? Only technical analysis can give the targets, where one can safely book the profits.

Technical Analysis gives targets, but
Fundamental News drives the market to reach the target.

But, sometimes, Technical wins over fundamental and fundamental wins over technical.

Market Research Analysis

Pages

Sunday 26 April 2015

NYMEX Crude Down Move - Fundamental Or Technical - A Research 26-Apr-2015