Crude Positional Analysis 24-Apr-2016

10-Jun-2016

CMP 48.94$
Now I am little bit worried about my bearish scenario, but still there is some possibility out there.
For my bearish and bullish scenario, please check:
http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2016/04/crude-positioanl-analysis-24-apr-2016.html

[6/11, 9:35 PM] Arockia: Weekly Analysis:

If crude closes below 48.89, highly bearish.

Early signs:

1. Weekly candle is gravestone doji.

2. Closed below MA 89.

Confirmation will be in coming week.

As of now, need to watch. No positional trades.

Now res is at 51.65$. Sellers sl max 51.65$ if u want to trade.

My targets: 47.3/45.55/43/41.55 if 51.65$ resists.

Min tgt done at 49.3$. Next small tgts can be 48.55/47.3$.

NOTE: THIS VIEW IS VALID AS LONG AS 51.65$ RESISTS.

[6/11, 9:39 PM] Arockia: Seasonality reversals:

May-Jun OR Aug-Sep TO Feb - BEARISH.

Jan-Feb To May-Jun OR Aug-Sep - BULLISH.

YEARLY

BUY IN MAR N SELL AT MAY/JUN

SELL IN JUN OR SEP N BUY AT DEC/JAN

Update 16-May-2016

 CMP 47.26

2015 Chart:

 2016 Chart:

Is history going to repeat again between May-June/July 2016?

 24-Apr-2016

CMP 43.71

Supports: 26/9.75$
Resistances: 62.57/112.21

Based on monthly chart, still I expect to see lower levels below 26$ positionally.

Bear Scenario:

As long as 35.2 supports, we can see 44.8 first, and further 45.4, 46.4-46.8, 47.5-47.8, 49.2, 50.26.
If crude resisted by 50.91$ and any reversal from the above levels, first target 26$ and further targets 21, 19.89, 17.89$.

Bull scenario:

Based on Weekly chart,
As long as 35.2 supports, I expect to see 51.55$ first, further we can see 55.45, 57.88, [61.7-64.1], 78.

Based on Daily chart,
As long as 37.60/35.23 supports, I expect to see [44.8], 46.55, 47.55, [49.3-50.35], 56.55.

Seasonality Analysis:

As per my seasonlity analysis, crude is bullish between Feb - Aug and bearish between Aug/Oct - Jan/Feb.

If history repeats, we can see lower low around December 2016.

ICICI Bank Analysis 24-Apr-2016

ICICI Bank
CMP 253
Supports: 220/181
As long as 220 supports, I expect to see 279 first, further 316-325. 279-293-302-316-325.

HINDPETRO (Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited) Analysis 24-Apr-2016

HINDPETRO (Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited)
CMP 855.90
Suppports: 636/158
Resistance: 995
As long as 995 resists, I expect to see 636 again and further 577-551, 499-478, 415-403.

Levels to watch: 857-910.

HDIL Analysis 24-Apr-2016

HDIL
CMP 83.10
Supports: 55.7/54.55
Resistance: 143.70
As long as 55.7 supports, I expect to see 81.5 (done already), 87-88.7, 91.3, 97.45-99.1-101.3, 107.2-109.7, 115.7-117.6, 122.5-123.2.

Crude Update 20-Apr-2016 - Is the history repeating again?

CMP 41.75$
Res: 42.9
Supports: 37.6/35.23

Crude is trading at important level. Immediate big down moves / lower lows  are in doubt as of now, because, crude has broken important resistance 42.46$ and made high 42.85/42.88.

For any sell strict n max sl must be 42.9$. If break likely scenarios
1. We have started bull move. If this is the case, buy on dips will be the main strategy.
2. We have started bigger correction with resistance at 62.6$. If this is the case, correction may last for longer time.

Seasonal Crude Moves based on the historical charts:
Feb/Mar - Aug/Oct - BULL MOVE.

Reference Charts:
http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2016/01/update-trading-ideas-historical.html

Positional Calls 11-Apr-2016

14-Apr-2014 5:30 AM IST

Market update:

Cmp 41.74$

Res: 42.46$

Support: 41.49/41.2$

Base support: 39.3$

Still res 42.46/.55 holds.

Made high: 42.39 till now.

As long as res holds, crude is in bear trend. Tomorrow's close will decide on the main trend.

No change in my views. Still I expect to see lower lows.

If crude breaks 42.46$, next 43.5/44$ can be seen.

Break of 41.49$ needed for sellers n break of 42.46$ needed for buyers.

For now, sl for any sell is 42.55$ strict.

13-Apr-2016 4:37 AM IST:

Crude broken all resistances and made high 42.23$ till now.

Upside all targets done at 41.5 n made high 42.23$.

Last res: 42.46$ but I don't think it will hold n sell view might fail.

So can exit sell at cmp 41.6 or on dips. No holding above 42.55$ strict.

Crude can fall after making new high. But as per my analysis, no holding above 42.46/42.55$ strict.

Now need to reanalyse this chart.

Alternate scenario on 19-Mar-2016

http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2016/03/crude-analysis-19-mar-2016.html?m=1

As per this scenario, we may see 43.4/44.5 above 42.46$.

12-Apr-2016

6:41 pm IST: Small sl 40.95$, big sl 42.55$

Crude done normal target on the upside at 40.7-40.9$, made high 40.89 till now.

Upside next target can be 41.5$

Can expect fall at anytime. Safe buyers can book profits now or on next high.

Thanks.

11-Apr-2016

My view still bearish. Cmp 40.44$

3.41 pm ist: Fresh sell can be at cmp 40.71$ or on next high, max sl 42.55$. Safe sell below 40.34/40.05$.

Any break of 42.55$, this view invalid.

10:06 PM IST.
Now, Crude safe sell is only below 39.24$ with max sl 42.55$.
High risky play can be at cmp 40.33 or on rise, with max sl 42.55$.

MCX cmp 2682, SL 2827 max.

Thanks,
Arockia.

[4/11, 15:47] KC Raj MMB: ACTIVE CALLS:

CALL 1:
[4/8, 8:41 PM] Arockia:

My present view 08-Apr-2016:

Sell 2minis at cmp 2645, and add 2 minis between 2670-2680, 2700-2720, 2750-2770 if you get.

SL 2821 max.

Tgts: 2355, 2183, 2081, 1805, 1655, 1389.

View valid as long as 2821 holds.

[4/11, 15:47] KC Raj MMB: CALL 2:

[4/10, 10:41 AM] Arockia: BIG POSITIONAL CALL:
Sell 1crude mini AUGUST at cmp 2933/50, sl 3201, tgt 1389/999

233 pts risk.
1544pts tgt.

All the best.

[4/11, 15:47] KC Raj MMB: CALL 3:

Trade Idea:
1. Buy Zinc on dips with max sl 116, for 118 (hit 12-Apr-2016, high 119.05 till now), 119.3 (hit 12-Apr-2016, high 119.6 till now), 120.5(hit 12-Apr-2016, high 120.5 till now).

2. Sell between 120-122, max sl 124.55, tgts: 115.6, 113.8, 112, 109.3, 107.3, 105.
2a. Sell below 115.6.

3. Buy between 107-100, SL 96.55, TGTs: 124.3, 133.
3a. Buy above 124.55

This analysis is for Study purpose only.
Read Disclaimer if you want to trade based on this.

[4/11, 15:47] KC Raj MMB: CALL 4:

[4/11, 10:34 AM] Arockia: Lead analysis 10-Apr-2016
Cmp 113.65
Res: 127.8/138.3

As long as 127.8 resists, sell on rise between 120-124, max sl 127.9 for 102, 95, 83.

MCX Base Metals - Swing Highs n Lows, Lifetime Highs n Lows., Important Levels

As per the data I have, the following are the Swing Highs n Lows, Lifetime Highs n Lows., Important Levels:

Alum 26.10.2005

86 (open) -> 84.25 -> 151.45 -> 92.55 -> 144.20 -> 62.20 -> 109.20 -> 85.90 -> 130.10 -> 91.80 -> 111.30 -> 98
Lifetime High: 151.45 (19-5-2006), Low: 62.20 (2-3-2009)
Important Levels: 62, 86, 92, 125, 130, 144, 151

Copper - 04.06.2004

129.95 (open) -> 117.60 -> 397.85 -> 138.55 -> 466.20 -> 332.35 -> 512.60 -> 291.50
Lifetime High: 512.60 (2-9-2013), Low: 117.60 (2-7-2004)
Important Levels: 118, 139, 332, 397, 411, 512.

Lead - 27.03.2006

52.95 (open) -> 41 -> 154.35 -> 40.50 -> 121.95 -> 72.55 -> 135.25 -> 90.85 -> 155.30 -> 102.45
Lifetime High: 155.30 (29-9-2013), Low: 40.50 (20-12-2008)
Important Levels: 66, 72, 91, 102, 122, 140, 155

Nickel - 03.06.2004

555 (open) -> 495 -> 2253.90 -> 442.30 -> 1327.8 -> 787.4 -> 1279.90 -> 517
Lifetime High: 2253.90 (17-4-2007), Low: 442.30 (23-12-2008)
Important Levels: 440, 500, 800, 995, 1280, 2250,

Zinc - 27.03.2006

118 (open) -> 118 -> 208.30 -> 49.85 -> 123.20 -> 74.35 -> 154.30 -> 96.65
Lifetime High: 208.30 (2-12-2006), Low: 49.85(22-12-2008)
Important Levels: 50, 98, 115, 123, 135, 155, 208

Zinc Analysis 09-Apr-2016

CMP: 117.20

Swing High: 124.45
Swing Low: 96.65
Res: 124.40/.45, 123.80
Supports: 115.60, 111.80

As long as Zinc resisted by 123.8/124.45, I expect to see 115.60 again.
Other targets: 115.1-114.7, 114-113.70, 112.15-111.80, 111.1-110.54, 109.25-109.15, 107.3-106.8, 104.8-104.5, 100.7-100.4

If Zinc supported by 115.60/116, I expect to see 118, 118.5-118.9, 119.3, 119.6-119.7, 120.1, 120.6-120.80, 121.3, 121.8, 122.5

Trade Idea:
1. Buy Zinc on dips with max sl 116, for 118, 119.3, 120.5.

2. Sell between 120-122, max sl 124.55, tgts: 115.6, 113.8, 112, 109.3, 107.3, 105.
2a. Sell below 115.6.

3. Buy between 107-100, SL 96.55, TGTs: 124.3, 133.
3a. Buy above 124.55

This analysis is for Study purpose only.
Read Disclaimer if you want to trade based on this.

Thanks.

Today's Calls 08-Apr-2016

9:30 AM IST
Risky sell crude at cmp 38.01 or between 38.1-38.2, sl 38.3.
Safe sell below 37.85$

Above 38.3 bull.

Now I expect to see 39.70, 40.3-40.4, 40.7-40.9, 41.55.

Gold Analysis 08-Apr-2016

CMP: 1236.83
Res: 1244/1284
support: 1208

If Gold resisted by 1244/1284, we can see 1208 again and further, 1194, 1168-1165, 1140-1137, 1120-1100.

Above 1244, we can see 1255, 1261-1265. Break of 1285, bull.

Breakout levels: 1208/1285.

All the best. Thanks.

Read Disclaimer before taking any trade decision.

Today's Calls 06-Apr-2016

6:00 AM IST
Risky Sell crude at cmp 36.76 or on Rise between 36.95-37.15 if you get, max SL 37.37 strict, TGTs: 35.26, 34.6/34.40. Refer positional views for other targets.

Positional Analysis - Reliance Infra 04-Apr-2016

04-Apr-2016
Swing High: 2631.70
Swing Low: 281.53
CMP 551.90

As long as Reliance Infra supported by 385/281, I expect to see 621 first.

Further targets: [726], 800-855, [934-986], 1180, [1273], 1455, 1733, 1941, 2074, 2631.

Thanks. All the best.

Read Disclaimer before making any trading decision.

Crude Analysis 01-Apr-2016

View 08-Apr-2016 1:28 PM IST

CMP 38.33

Crude broken important res 38.27, Now I expect to see 39.70, 40.3-40.45, 40.70-40.90, 41.55.

If crude resisted by 42.46$ again fall will start and min target 35.23. Other targets, please check previous views.

View 08-Apr-2016 5:55 AM IST

CMP: 37.58

Supports: 36.67, 35.23

Resistances:  38.27, 42.46

As per the below chart,

Small breakout levels: 38.27/36.67.

Positional breakout levels: 42.46/35.23.

Above 38.27, we may see 39, 39.7, 40.34, 40.8, 41.55. Above 42.46, bull.

As long as 42.46 resists and any break below 35.23$, positionally bearish and we will see 26$ again. refer previous update for downside targets.

So, as of now, aggressive shorts not preferred.

Levels to watch: 39.7 - 40.8 if we reach there.

Chart 1

Chart 2 for some ideas

Thanks.

 

View 07-Apr-2016

Update 8:41 PM IST

 Any break of 35.23, I expect 32.15, 31.60, 28.38, 26.31, 22.42, 20.89, 19.89

 Update 6:03 PM IST

37.34, 37.13, 36.75-36.69, 36.58, 36.41-36.39, 36.18-36.12 (level to watch if we reach here), 35.97-25.95, 35.58, 35.23

CMP 37.82$
Now, If crude resisted by 38.3$, I expect to see 37.55$ again and further 37.11, 36.76, 36.39, 36.12, 36.00-35.95, 35.23. if crude breaks 35.2$ Crude will be very weak.
View valid as long as 38.3$ holds res.

Thanks.

Chart Analysis 07-Apr-2016

 

 

 View 06-Apr-2016

8:30 PM: SL NOT SAFE, MADE HIGH 37.53 till now. Still my view sell on rise only.

I expect this up move to be completed between 37-37.25$.

Below 36.44 bearish and expecting 36.24 first and my other targets 35.02-34.96, 34.25, 33.47, 32.48-32.36, 31.81....

Fresh sell can be initiated at cmp 36.87 or between 37-37.25 with SL 37.37/37.55(max) for the above targets.

Thanks.

 

Update 02-Apr-2016

36.26-36.02, 35.34, 35.02-34.96, 34.25, 33.47, 32.48-32.36, 31.81...

 

01-Apr-2016

CMP 37.71$
Resistances: 39.83/42.46$
Support: 35.94$


Crude is trading at important level between 37.85-37.48.

Now support seen around 37.56.
Small resistance is at 38.35/39.01$.


As long as Crude resisted by 39.83/42.46, I am bearish and expecting [36.76$] first.
Further targets: 36.18-35.94, [35.34-35.26], 34.25, [33.1], 32.44-32.30, [31.8], 30.86, 29.91, 27.88, [26.04].
Below 26$, I expect 21/19.89$.

Thanks,
Read Disclaimer before making any trade decision.

-------------------------------------------------

Previous Analysis and result:

http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2016/03/crude-analysis-19-mar-2016.html

As long as crude resisted by 42.46$, we can see 26$ first positionally and further 21/19.89$.
Targets: 38.57, 36.18, 34.24, 32.32, 30.85, 27.54, 26.04.

As long as long as crude resisted by 42.46$, I expect to see 40.92, 40.16-39.96, 39.21, 38.75-38.44.

Check the above post for Alternative scenario.